Johnson County’s decision tension is an apparent divergence between a falling county value measure and a rising transaction index. Underwriters relying on resale comparables or near-term income should be cautious and investigate both. Zillow’s county median home value was $193,160, down 3.07% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 3.09% annually. The index is not a home value; its method and vintage differ from Zillow’s, so the figures cannot be averaged or treated as one trend.
No county market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The $916 two-bedroom HUD FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot substitute for market rent. The effective property-tax rate is 1.24%, with median annual tax of $1,992. Those county measures warrant carrying-cost review but cannot determine a parcel’s bill. Missing rent comparables, utilities, insurance, financing, repairs and vacancy evidence prevent a net-cash-flow conclusion.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS data, sharing Zillow’s label, show median listing price up 20.33% year over year, a 29.69% price-reduced share and a 41.67% pending-to-active ratio. This is asking-price, seller-concession and listing-status evidence—not closed-sale pricing or stand-alone proof of buyer demand—and need not reconcile with Zillow’s home-value direction. Outbound tax-return households exceeded inbound households, although incoming movers’ average AGI exceeded outgoing movers’ by a calculated $6,482. Investors accounted for 10.10% of 99 purchases, a measurable but not dominant component. QCEW covered jobs at county workplaces rose 11.32%; that is neither resident employment nor a forecast. Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.22% of building value; it is not a property-specific dollar-loss estimate. Next checks are parcel flood zone, elevation, prior claims, insurance quotes, rent comparables and closed-sale comparables. County-level evidence cannot establish a specific property’s exposure, operating income or sale value.