Tuolumne presents an income-versus-resale tension: Zillow’s June 2026 county median home value was $395,772, down 2.05% year over year, while median asking rent was $1,472 monthly, up 8.06%. The supplied 4.46% gross yield uses market rent before costs. It merits income-focused investigation, while an appreciation-led case warrants caution; this remains county-level screening, not a property valuation.
Separate the benchmarks. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot substitute for market rent in the yield calculation. The 2025 FHFA repeat-transaction HPI rose 0.04% annually after a 29.71% cumulative five-year change. This near-flat indexed change differs from Zillow’s decline and is neither a dollar value nor the same vintage or method as Zillow. The 0.66% effective property-tax rate is a recurring cost against gross yield; unreported insurance, financing, maintenance and vacancy prevent a net-yield conclusion.
MLS conditions are mixed, not proof of demand. Realtor.com recorded 462 active listings, 8.52% fewer year over year; median marketing time was 57 days and 18.63% of listings had price reductions. These are active-listing asking-market measures, not closed sales. Investor share was 10.23% of 567 total purchases. Net migration was negative 58 tax-return households, and incoming movers’ average AGI was $5,923 below outgoing movers’. QCEW county-workplace data show covered employment and wages increased; education and health services was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy.
Wildfire is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.36% of building value; this can narrow the apparent gap between gross rent and carrying costs, but is not a property-specific insurance quote. Missing parcel-level hazard exposure, insurance availability and premiums, unit-level rents, vacancy, operating expenses, debt terms, and closed-sale comparables prevent conclusions on insurability, net income, debt coverage and resale value. These require asset-level verification.