Vermilion County has a low-basis income case but a demand-and-liquidity tension: the supplied Zillow county median home value is $98,565, median asking rent is $881 monthly, and gross yield is 10.73% before operating costs. It warrants investigation by buyers who can validate unit rent, condition, and lease-up; buyers dependent on quick resale or broad tenant growth should be cautious. Zillow reports value growth, but it is not a sale-price series.
The $881 is measured asking rent, not HUD’s supplied $974 Fair Market Rent; FMR is a payment standard and cannot substitute for market rent or calculate yield. The stated yield precedes taxes, insurance, repairs, vacancy, and financing. Effective property tax is 1.81%, with median annual tax $1,757, a material carrying-cost check against property-specific assessments. FHFA’s annual repeat-transaction HPI increased 7.61%; it is neither a dollar value nor the same vintage or method as Zillow’s county observation, so the series should not be averaged.
Demand evidence is mixed. QCEW annual covered employment at county workplaces declined; its leading disclosed private supersector was Trade, transportation, and utilities, not a description of the whole economy or resident employment. Realtor.com MLS listing-market evidence shows softer seller positioning: 125 active listings, up 46.2%, 47 median days on market, and 15.47% of listings with a price reduction. These are asking-market supply and marketing-time measures, not closed sales or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was net negative by 102 households, and movers in had average AGI $4,205 below movers out. Of 595 purchase mortgages, 74 were to non-occupants, showing some competition but not its bidding behavior.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard; modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.13%, but that model is not a parcel flood determination or insurance quote. Published evidence lacks neighborhood rents by bedroom, vacancy and concession history, property insurance and flood-zone costs, sale transactions, household income, debt terms, and property condition. Those absences prevent a net-yield, leverage, rent-stability, or exit-liquidity conclusion. Next checks are address-level flood and insurance records, the tax bill and assessment, rent comparables, lease-up history, and closed-sale or contract activity.