Price direction

How to read rent growth and home-value growth without chasing the fastest line

What does it mean when rents and home values move at different speeds?

Rent and home values can rise together while changing the economics of a rental purchase in opposite ways. What matters for an early screen is not simply which line grew faster, but the period, starting level and reason the two series diverged.

RentMarker compares like-for-like Zillow histories over an exact shared interval. The resulting growth gap is a descriptive signal: it shows where rent moved faster than home value, where value moved faster, and where the difference stayed close. It is not a forecast and it does not include property expenses.

A growth gap changes the question. It does not explain the cause, guarantee reversion or turn historical momentum into a return forecast.
Current evidence

Rent growth beside home-value growth

The scatter keeps both axes visible so a reader can distinguish broad expansion, weak demand and a true relative gap.

319 markets with four direct endpoints

Five-year asking-rent change versus home-value change

Above the diagonal, Zillow asking rent changed faster; below it, Zillow home values changed faster.

Metro rent growth compared with home-value growthScatter plot using exact same-month Zillow ZORI and ZHVI endpoints five years apart. Points above the diagonal have asking-rent change greater than home-value change.-9%-9%11%11%31%31%51%51%71%71%90%90%rent = home-value changeAbilene, TX: rent 87.0%, home value 25.6%, gap 61.3%Johnstown, PA: rent 36.4%, home value -9.2%, gap 45.5%Williston, ND: rent 50.0%, home value 13.3%, gap 36.7%New Orleans, LA: rent 19.8%, home value -4.5%, gap 24.3%Sumter, SC: rent 38.6%, home value 16.0%, gap 22.6%Redding, CA: rent 30.4%, home value 8.5%, gap 21.8%Jackson, MI: rent 43.2%, home value 21.3%, gap 21.8%Oak Harbor, WA: rent 34.2%, home value 12.4%, gap 21.8%Beaumont, TX: rent 24.8%, home value 3.6%, gap 21.3%San Francisco, CA: rent 24.7%, home value 3.8%, gap 20.9%Punta Gorda, FL: rent 27.1%, home value 7.2%, gap 19.9%Shreveport, LA: rent 24.4%, home value 4.6%, gap 19.8%Fairbanks, AK: rent 29.3%, home value 9.6%, gap 19.7%Ruston, LA: rent 26.7%, home value 8.2%, gap 18.5%Odessa, TX: rent 31.9%, home value 13.8%, gap 18.1%Tuscaloosa, AL: rent 34.7%, home value 16.9%, gap 17.8%Corvallis, OR: rent 37.9%, home value 20.3%, gap 17.6%Salinas, CA: rent 33.2%, home value 16.1%, gap 17.0%Midland, TX: rent 32.3%, home value 15.3%, gap 16.9%Florence, AL: rent 44.7%, home value 27.9%, gap 16.9%Harrisonburg, VA: rent 43.2%, home value 26.5%, gap 16.7%Chico, CA: rent 18.7%, home value 2.1%, gap 16.6%Boise City, ID: rent 19.0%, home value 2.6%, gap 16.5%Columbia, MO: rent 47.9%, home value 32.3%, gap 15.7%Santa Rosa, CA: rent 20.2%, home value 4.8%, gap 15.4%Eugene, OR: rent 29.5%, home value 14.4%, gap 15.1%Gulfport, MS: rent 36.6%, home value 21.9%, gap 14.7%Lafayette, LA: rent 17.9%, home value 3.3%, gap 14.6%Enterprise, AL: rent 35.8%, home value 21.3%, gap 14.4%Cheyenne, WY: rent 29.1%, home value 14.7%, gap 14.4%Pueblo, CO: rent 23.4%, home value 9.0%, gap 14.3%Medford, OR: rent 22.8%, home value 8.5%, gap 14.3%New York, NY: rent 42.2%, home value 27.9%, gap 14.3%Tallahassee, FL: rent 37.1%, home value 23.1%, gap 14.0%Urban Honolulu, HI: rent 27.5%, home value 13.5%, gap 14.0%Carbondale, IL: rent 31.9%, home value 18.0%, gap 13.9%Boulder, CO: rent 21.8%, home value 8.1%, gap 13.6%Laredo, TX: rent 26.9%, home value 13.3%, gap 13.6%Lake Charles, LA: rent 5.9%, home value -7.7%, gap 13.6%Stillwater, OK: rent 41.1%, home value 27.7%, gap 13.4%Pittsburgh, PA: rent 25.9%, home value 12.7%, gap 13.2%Winchester, VA: rent 37.3%, home value 24.6%, gap 12.7%Santa Cruz, CA: rent 26.5%, home value 13.9%, gap 12.6%Yuba City, CA: rent 23.2%, home value 10.8%, gap 12.4%Austin, TX: rent 3.5%, home value -8.7%, gap 12.2%Albany, OR: rent 31.9%, home value 19.9%, gap 12.0%Napa, CA: rent 16.2%, home value 4.3%, gap 11.9%Lawton, OK: rent 38.8%, home value 26.9%, gap 11.9%Binghamton, NY: rent 51.7%, home value 39.8%, gap 11.8%Santa Fe, NM: rent 29.4%, home value 17.8%, gap 11.6%Auburn, AL: rent 43.1%, home value 31.5%, gap 11.6%Mobile, AL: rent 34.1%, home value 22.6%, gap 11.5%Sebastian, FL: rent 36.1%, home value 24.7%, gap 11.3%Niles, MI: rent 41.4%, home value 30.1%, gap 11.3%Bloomington, IL: rent 47.5%, home value 36.2%, gap 11.2%Anchorage, AK: rent 34.3%, home value 23.2%, gap 11.0%Mount Vernon, WA: rent 29.0%, home value 18.0%, gap 11.0%Fort Collins, CO: rent 24.3%, home value 13.3%, gap 11.0%Bellingham, WA: rent 28.1%, home value 17.2%, gap 10.9%Sacramento, CA: rent 18.0%, home value 7.2%, gap 10.8%Muskegon, MI: rent 40.5%, home value 29.7%, gap 10.8%Springfield, MA: rent 40.4%, home value 29.7%, gap 10.7%Lawrence, KS: rent 41.2%, home value 30.5%, gap 10.7%Stockton, CA: rent 16.1%, home value 5.6%, gap 10.4%Merced, CA: rent 26.4%, home value 16.0%, gap 10.4%Roanoke, VA: rent 44.1%, home value 33.9%, gap 10.2%State College, PA: rent 31.0%, home value 20.8%, gap 10.2%Wheeling, WV: rent 20.6%, home value 10.4%, gap 10.2%San Angelo, TX: rent 23.0%, home value 12.8%, gap 10.2%Staunton, VA: rent 37.7%, home value 27.6%, gap 10.1%Greeley, CO: rent 19.6%, home value 9.6%, gap 10.0%Huntington, WV: rent 27.5%, home value 17.9%, gap 9.6%Seattle, WA: rent 22.5%, home value 12.8%, gap 9.6%Vallejo, CA: rent 14.4%, home value 4.8%, gap 9.6%Bremerton, WA: rent 20.6%, home value 11.3%, gap 9.4%Kahului, HI: rent 32.7%, home value 23.4%, gap 9.3%Modesto, CA: rent 22.7%, home value 13.7%, gap 8.9%Washington, DC: rent 22.5%, home value 13.6%, gap 8.9%Grand Junction, CO: rent 37.9%, home value 29.1%, gap 8.8%Lansing, MI: rent 35.6%, home value 26.8%, gap 8.8%Chicago, IL: rent 36.7%, home value 28.0%, gap 8.7%Bismarck, ND: rent 35.7%, home value 27.1%, gap 8.6%Kokomo, IN: rent 49.7%, home value 41.3%, gap 8.4%Cedar Rapids, IA: rent 35.0%, home value 26.6%, gap 8.4%Colorado Springs, CO: rent 15.8%, home value 7.4%, gap 8.3%Morgantown, WV: rent 24.9%, home value 16.6%, gap 8.3%Ann Arbor, MI: rent 28.1%, home value 19.8%, gap 8.3%Olympia, WA: rent 22.9%, home value 14.7%, gap 8.2%Grand Forks, ND: rent 33.8%, home value 25.6%, gap 8.2%Charleston, WV: rent 32.7%, home value 24.5%, gap 8.2%Idaho Falls, ID: rent 21.5%, home value 13.3%, gap 8.2%Springfield, IL: rent 39.1%, home value 31.1%, gap 8.0%Worcester, MA: rent 39.0%, home value 31.1%, gap 7.9%Chambersburg, PA: rent 32.7%, home value 24.8%, gap 7.8%Portland, OR: rent 16.1%, home value 8.3%, gap 7.8%San Luis Obispo, CA: rent 32.6%, home value 25.0%, gap 7.7%Johnson City, TN: rent 45.7%, home value 38.0%, gap 7.7%Wenatchee, WA: rent 21.4%, home value 13.7%, gap 7.7%Toledo, OH: rent 34.4%, home value 26.8%, gap 7.6%Gainesville, FL: rent 30.2%, home value 22.6%, gap 7.6%East Stroudsburg, PA: rent 36.4%, home value 28.8%, gap 7.6%Greensboro, NC: rent 34.4%, home value 26.8%, gap 7.6%Salem, OR: rent 22.5%, home value 15.0%, gap 7.5%San Jose, CA: rent 27.2%, home value 19.7%, gap 7.5%Flint, MI: rent 34.6%, home value 27.0%, gap 7.5%Blacksburg, VA: rent 31.9%, home value 24.5%, gap 7.4%St. Louis, MO: rent 32.3%, home value 25.0%, gap 7.3%Wichita Falls, TX: rent 32.5%, home value 25.2%, gap 7.2%Evansville, IN: rent 39.1%, home value 31.9%, gap 7.2%Cape Coral, FL: rent 22.9%, home value 15.8%, gap 7.2%Boston, MA: rent 31.2%, home value 24.1%, gap 7.1%Akron, OH: rent 38.4%, home value 31.5%, gap 6.9%Rexburg, ID: rent 30.0%, home value 23.2%, gap 6.8%St. George, UT: rent 22.5%, home value 15.8%, gap 6.7%Providence, RI: rent 39.7%, home value 33.1%, gap 6.6%Jackson, MS: rent 28.1%, home value 21.7%, gap 6.4%Louisville, KY: rent 30.4%, home value 24.1%, gap 6.3%College Station, TX: rent 28.9%, home value 22.6%, gap 6.3%Virginia Beach, VA: rent 32.9%, home value 26.6%, gap 6.3%Omaha, NE: rent 30.7%, home value 24.5%, gap 6.2%Deltona, FL: rent 26.4%, home value 20.2%, gap 6.2%Warrensburg, MO: rent 29.8%, home value 23.6%, gap 6.2%Minneapolis, MN: rent 18.5%, home value 12.4%, gap 6.1%Bloomington, IN: rent 29.8%, home value 23.7%, gap 6.1%Bozeman, MT: rent 20.8%, home value 14.7%, gap 6.1%Richmond, KY: rent 37.7%, home value 31.8%, gap 5.9%Provo, UT: rent 22.1%, home value 16.3%, gap 5.8%Denver, CO: rent 12.6%, home value 6.9%, gap 5.8%Baltimore, MD: rent 22.4%, home value 16.7%, gap 5.7%Davenport, IA: rent 25.3%, home value 19.6%, gap 5.7%Champaign, IL: rent 38.3%, home value 32.8%, gap 5.5%Reno, NV: rent 20.0%, home value 14.5%, gap 5.5%Peoria, IL: rent 43.7%, home value 38.2%, gap 5.5%Oxnard, CA: rent 23.3%, home value 17.8%, gap 5.5%Charlottesville, VA: rent 29.2%, home value 23.8%, gap 5.4%Indianapolis, IN: rent 31.5%, home value 26.3%, gap 5.3%Kansas City, MO: rent 32.0%, home value 26.8%, gap 5.3%Burlington, VT: rent 29.8%, home value 24.5%, gap 5.3%Kennewick, WA: rent 24.9%, home value 19.7%, gap 5.2%Brownsville, TX: rent 36.6%, home value 31.4%, gap 5.2%Corpus Christi, TX: rent 11.9%, home value 6.7%, gap 5.2%Montgomery, AL: rent 32.4%, home value 27.2%, gap 5.2%Charleston, SC: rent 37.3%, home value 32.2%, gap 5.1%Hagerstown, MD: rent 33.8%, home value 28.6%, gap 5.1%Lake Havasu City, AZ: rent 20.1%, home value 15.0%, gap 5.1%Topeka, KS: rent 41.0%, home value 35.9%, gap 5.1%Bakersfield, CA: rent 32.6%, home value 27.6%, gap 5.1%Lynchburg, VA: rent 36.5%, home value 31.4%, gap 5.1%San Diego, CA: rent 29.9%, home value 24.9%, gap 4.9%Lafayette, IN: rent 40.0%, home value 35.1%, gap 4.9%Port St. Lucie, FL: rent 32.6%, home value 27.8%, gap 4.9%Fargo, ND: rent 26.1%, home value 21.3%, gap 4.8%Valdosta, GA: rent 42.9%, home value 38.1%, gap 4.8%Birmingham, AL: rent 23.1%, home value 18.4%, gap 4.8%Waco, TX: rent 26.6%, home value 22.0%, gap 4.6%Fresno, CA: rent 27.0%, home value 22.4%, gap 4.6%Palm Bay, FL: rent 26.3%, home value 21.8%, gap 4.5%Cincinnati, OH: rent 32.0%, home value 27.6%, gap 4.5%Visalia, CA: rent 28.9%, home value 24.5%, gap 4.4%Columbus, IN: rent 37.0%, home value 32.6%, gap 4.4%Minot, ND: rent 30.8%, home value 26.6%, gap 4.2%South Bend, IN: rent 41.3%, home value 37.2%, gap 4.2%Tucson, AZ: rent 21.2%, home value 17.2%, gap 4.1%North Port, FL: rent 21.4%, home value 17.4%, gap 4.0%Hot Springs, AR: rent 34.2%, home value 30.2%, gap 4.0%Bend, OR: rent 13.7%, home value 9.8%, gap 3.8%Fort Smith, AR: rent 33.6%, home value 29.7%, gap 3.8%Florence, SC: rent 31.4%, home value 27.6%, gap 3.8%Tampa, FL: rent 26.7%, home value 23.0%, gap 3.7%Asheville, NC: rent 25.5%, home value 21.7%, gap 3.7%Torrington, CT: rent 42.1%, home value 38.4%, gap 3.7%Lincoln, NE: rent 29.5%, home value 26.0%, gap 3.5%Homosassa Springs, FL: rent 27.7%, home value 24.4%, gap 3.3%Madison, WI: rent 32.9%, home value 29.7%, gap 3.2%Spokane, WA: rent 16.9%, home value 13.7%, gap 3.2%Augusta, ME: rent 39.4%, home value 36.2%, gap 3.1%Lexington, KY: rent 38.2%, home value 35.2%, gap 3.1%Detroit, MI: rent 26.3%, home value 23.3%, gap 3.0%Kankakee, IL: rent 34.5%, home value 31.5%, gap 2.9%Cleveland, OH: rent 35.4%, home value 32.5%, gap 2.9%Terre Haute, IN: rent 34.7%, home value 31.8%, gap 2.9%Kalamazoo, MI: rent 29.2%, home value 26.4%, gap 2.8%Baton Rouge, LA: rent 18.3%, home value 15.7%, gap 2.7%Riverside, CA: rent 25.1%, home value 22.4%, gap 2.7%Rock Springs, WY: rent 25.3%, home value 22.8%, gap 2.5%Crestview, FL: rent 20.0%, home value 17.6%, gap 2.4%Daphne, AL: rent 24.6%, home value 22.2%, gap 2.4%Amarillo, TX: rent 29.1%, home value 26.8%, gap 2.3%Winston, NC: rent 32.1%, home value 29.8%, gap 2.3%Utica, NY: rent 42.5%, home value 40.3%, gap 2.2%Canton, OH: rent 36.9%, home value 34.7%, gap 2.2%Richmond, VA: rent 30.6%, home value 28.7%, gap 2.0%Portland, ME: rent 31.7%, home value 29.9%, gap 1.7%Longview, TX: rent 26.6%, home value 24.9%, gap 1.7%Hickory, NC: rent 33.4%, home value 31.8%, gap 1.7%Iowa City, IA: rent 27.2%, home value 25.7%, gap 1.4%Rapid City, SD: rent 33.3%, home value 31.9%, gap 1.4%Heber, UT: rent 30.3%, home value 29.0%, gap 1.3%Los Angeles, CA: rent 24.3%, home value 23.1%, gap 1.3%Miami, FL: rent 35.2%, home value 34.0%, gap 1.2%Rochester, MN: rent 23.5%, home value 22.4%, gap 1.1%Columbia, SC: rent 32.6%, home value 31.5%, gap 1.1%Jonesboro, AR: rent 25.7%, home value 24.6%, gap 1.0%New Bern, NC: rent 40.9%, home value 39.8%, gap 1.0%Fort Wayne, IN: rent 37.0%, home value 36.0%, gap 1.0%Salt Lake City, UT: rent 18.1%, home value 17.1%, gap 0.9%Moses Lake, WA: rent 22.6%, home value 21.7%, gap 0.9%Oshkosh, WI: rent 36.6%, home value 35.7%, gap 0.9%Lakeland, FL: rent 24.0%, home value 23.2%, gap 0.9%Memphis, TN: rent 20.7%, home value 19.9%, gap 0.7%Pittsfield, MA: rent 36.1%, home value 35.4%, gap 0.7%Ogden, UT: rent 21.5%, home value 20.9%, gap 0.6%Columbus, GA: rent 30.1%, home value 29.5%, gap 0.5%Reading, PA: rent 35.9%, home value 35.4%, gap 0.5%Racine, WI: rent 34.1%, home value 33.6%, gap 0.5%Santa Maria, CA: rent 34.4%, home value 33.9%, gap 0.5%Manhattan, KS: rent 29.1%, home value 28.7%, gap 0.3%Dallas, TX: rent 15.9%, home value 15.6%, gap 0.2%Sioux Falls, SD: rent 27.3%, home value 27.2%, gap 0.2%Athens, GA: rent 34.9%, home value 34.8%, gap 0.1%Scranton, PA: rent 31.0%, home value 30.9%, gap 0.1%Columbus, OH: rent 26.0%, home value 25.9%, gap 0.1%Bowling Green, KY: rent 28.3%, home value 28.2%, gap 0.1%Grand Rapids, MI: rent 31.3%, home value 31.3%, gap 0.0%Greenville, NC: rent 37.7%, home value 37.7%, gap 0.0%Key West, FL: rent 31.7%, home value 31.7%, gap 0.0%Augusta, GA: rent 27.4%, home value 27.5%, gap -0.1%Saginaw, MI: rent 39.2%, home value 39.6%, gap -0.4%Pensacola, FL: rent 23.1%, home value 23.6%, gap -0.4%Little Rock, AR: rent 23.0%, home value 23.4%, gap -0.4%Barnstable Town, MA: rent 32.2%, home value 32.7%, gap -0.5%Billings, MT: rent 31.0%, home value 31.6%, gap -0.6%St. Cloud, MN: rent 28.3%, home value 29.0%, gap -0.7%Houston, TX: rent 15.2%, home value 15.9%, gap -0.7%Erie, PA: rent 39.4%, home value 40.2%, gap -0.8%Lancaster, PA: rent 34.3%, home value 35.3%, gap -1.0%York, PA: rent 31.5%, home value 32.6%, gap -1.1%Orlando, FL: rent 24.8%, home value 25.9%, gap -1.1%Casper, WY: rent 27.7%, home value 28.9%, gap -1.2%Hutchinson, KS: rent 35.4%, home value 36.7%, gap -1.3%San Antonio, TX: rent 7.8%, home value 9.1%, gap -1.3%Missoula, MT: rent 25.4%, home value 26.8%, gap -1.3%Tulsa, OK: rent 29.0%, home value 30.4%, gap -1.3%Bangor, ME: rent 35.5%, home value 36.9%, gap -1.4%Albuquerque, NM: rent 30.2%, home value 31.7%, gap -1.4%Myrtle Beach, SC: rent 27.6%, home value 29.0%, gap -1.5%Lubbock, TX: rent 14.7%, home value 16.2%, gap -1.5%Muncie, IN: rent 40.9%, home value 42.4%, gap -1.5%Oklahoma City, OK: rent 24.7%, home value 26.3%, gap -1.6%Phoenix, AZ: rent 12.5%, home value 14.2%, gap -1.6%Milwaukee, WI: rent 30.0%, home value 31.6%, gap -1.7%Youngstown, OH: rent 36.1%, home value 37.8%, gap -1.7%Manchester, NH: rent 33.6%, home value 35.3%, gap -1.7%Frankfort, KY: rent 35.2%, home value 36.9%, gap -1.7%Ames, IA: rent 22.4%, home value 24.4%, gap -2.0%Flagstaff, AZ: rent 26.9%, home value 28.9%, gap -2.0%Las Cruces, NM: rent 30.8%, home value 32.9%, gap -2.1%Atlantic City, NJ: rent 46.5%, home value 48.7%, gap -2.2%Lebanon, PA: rent 35.5%, home value 37.7%, gap -2.2%Norwich, CT: rent 41.4%, home value 43.6%, gap -2.3%Philadelphia, PA: rent 26.0%, home value 28.6%, gap -2.6%Great Falls, MT: rent 44.6%, home value 47.2%, gap -2.7%Harrisburg, PA: rent 28.8%, home value 31.6%, gap -2.7%Buffalo, NY: rent 31.2%, home value 34.0%, gap -2.7%Sebring, FL: rent 32.2%, home value 35.1%, gap -2.9%Huntsville, AL: rent 16.8%, home value 19.7%, gap -2.9%Jacksonville, FL: rent 19.9%, home value 22.9%, gap -3.0%Ocala, FL: rent 26.1%, home value 29.1%, gap -3.0%Sherman, TX: rent 12.7%, home value 15.8%, gap -3.0%Burlington, NC: rent 36.0%, home value 39.0%, gap -3.1%Killeen, TX: rent 17.0%, home value 20.1%, gap -3.1%Des Moines, IA: rent 18.5%, home value 21.6%, gap -3.1%New Haven, CT: rent 38.9%, home value 42.1%, gap -3.3%Springfield, MO: rent 29.4%, home value 32.8%, gap -3.4%Trenton, NJ: rent 34.3%, home value 37.7%, gap -3.4%Ithaca, NY: rent 33.2%, home value 36.7%, gap -3.5%Duluth, MN: rent 28.7%, home value 32.2%, gap -3.5%Wichita, KS: rent 30.3%, home value 33.9%, gap -3.6%Fayetteville, NC: rent 33.2%, home value 37.0%, gap -3.8%Albany, NY: rent 30.0%, home value 33.8%, gap -3.8%El Paso, TX: rent 31.6%, home value 35.4%, gap -3.8%Allentown, PA: rent 29.9%, home value 33.8%, gap -3.9%Albany, GA: rent 28.9%, home value 32.9%, gap -4.0%Jacksonville, NC: rent 38.6%, home value 42.7%, gap -4.2%Atlanta, GA: rent 19.1%, home value 23.3%, gap -4.2%Wilmington, NC: rent 29.4%, home value 33.6%, gap -4.2%Dover, DE: rent 26.6%, home value 30.9%, gap -4.3%Warner Robins, GA: rent 35.2%, home value 39.6%, gap -4.4%Coeur d'Alene, ID: rent 12.3%, home value 16.7%, gap -4.4%Green Bay, WI: rent 38.1%, home value 42.8%, gap -4.7%Chattanooga, TN: rent 24.2%, home value 29.2%, gap -5.0%Waterloo, IA: rent 23.7%, home value 28.9%, gap -5.2%Greenville, SC: rent 25.6%, home value 30.8%, gap -5.3%Savannah, GA: rent 31.6%, home value 36.8%, gap -5.3%Durham, NC: rent 20.5%, home value 26.1%, gap -5.7%Charlotte, NC: rent 21.7%, home value 27.4%, gap -5.7%Spartanburg, SC: rent 27.3%, home value 33.0%, gap -5.7%Cleveland, TN: rent 29.0%, home value 34.7%, gap -5.7%Hinesville, GA: rent 42.5%, home value 48.2%, gap -5.8%Bridgeport, CT: rent 30.7%, home value 37.1%, gap -6.4%Hilton Head Island, SC: rent 33.6%, home value 40.1%, gap -6.5%Nashville, TN: rent 18.8%, home value 25.4%, gap -6.6%Clarksville, TN: rent 23.3%, home value 30.2%, gap -6.9%Rockford, IL: rent 47.1%, home value 54.1%, gap -7.0%Raleigh, NC: rent 17.8%, home value 24.9%, gap -7.1%Macon, GA: rent 23.4%, home value 30.6%, gap -7.1%Panama City, FL: rent 15.1%, home value 22.3%, gap -7.2%Fayetteville, AR: rent 33.9%, home value 41.5%, gap -7.6%Hartford, CT: rent 36.4%, home value 44.0%, gap -7.6%Las Vegas, NV: rent 15.5%, home value 23.2%, gap -7.7%Knoxville, TN: rent 37.8%, home value 45.6%, gap -7.7%Rochester, NY: rent 33.4%, home value 41.8%, gap -8.4%Tyler, TX: rent 19.2%, home value 27.8%, gap -8.7%Syracuse, NY: rent 39.0%, home value 48.6%, gap -9.5%Kingston, NY: rent 26.9%, home value 36.7%, gap -9.8%Pinehurst, NC: rent 24.6%, home value 35.7%, gap -11.0%Durango, CO: rent 25.7%, home value 37.2%, gap -11.5%Gainesville, GA: rent 18.2%, home value 30.2%, gap -11.9%McAllen, TX: rent 16.6%, home value 30.7%, gap -14.1%AbileneJohnstownWillistonDurangoGainesvilleMcAllenZillow home-value change →Zillow asking-rent change →
The same exact start and end month is used on both axes. Missing endpoints remain absent; the two-percent near-pace band is descriptive and does not enter a score.
What the current contract says

Read the distribution before the example

The shared 2021-06-30 to 2026-06-30 window covers 319 metros. Rent moved ahead of home value in 191, while home value moved ahead in 63. Abilene, TX records the widest positive rent-minus-value gap in the current study.

Shared-history metros3192021-06-30 → 2026-06-30
Median rent change30.0%exact shared window
Median value change26.4%same markets and dates
Median growth gap4.4%rent minus home value
Open Abilene, TX
01
Use a shared window

Trend comparisons fail when their dates do not line up

A recent annual rent change should not be placed beside a multi-year home-value move and treated as a spread. The series must start and end on comparable dates, and both values must exist for the market throughout that window. Otherwise, the apparent difference may be nothing more than mismatched timing.

A shared interval also makes the base visible. Strong percentage growth from an unusually weak starting point carries a different story from steady expansion on a high base. The chart should be read with the start and end values, not as a leaderboard detached from the levels that produced it.

02
Separate quadrants

The same gap can come from very different market paths

Rent can outrun values because rents strengthened, because values weakened, or because both moved in the same direction at different speeds. Those are not equivalent conditions. One may suggest improving rental revenue relative to price; another may reflect property-market distress that deserves a labor, population and inventory check.

Home values can outrun rents during strong owner demand, constrained for-sale inventory or low-rate periods. That may compress a gross-yield screen without making the metro undesirable. It simply means a buyer needs a clearer appreciation thesis or a property that performs better than the broad market ratio.

03
Ask what moved

Supply, employment and migration belong behind the trend lines

Historical divergence becomes useful when it creates a research queue. Building permits and listings help test supply; jobs and occupation wages help test household support; migration helps test population flows. No single counter-signal proves the cause, but the combination can expose a narrative that depends on only one favorable chart.

Period cadence matters here too. Monthly Zillow series, annual population estimates and labor releases do not represent one synchronized observation. A responsible interpretation names the latest available period for each source and treats disagreement as information rather than forcing every series into one story.

04
Underwrite forward

A favorable historical spread still needs a downside case

If rents grew faster than values, do not project the same spread indefinitely. Test a flat-rent case, a vacancy increase and expenses that move faster than income. If values grew faster, test whether the property can carry itself without appreciation. These scenarios translate a market observation into a decision boundary.

The property may differ from the index because of neighborhood, quality, tenant segment or purchase basis. Market history sets context; the actual price, achievable rent, taxes, insurance, repairs and financing decide whether the deal survives. Trend analysis should make underwriting more skeptical, not more automatic.

Decision workflow

Read a divergence without chasing it

  1. 1
    Align the dates

    Use one exact window and retain the start and end values for both series.

  2. 2
    Identify the path

    Distinguish rent strength from value weakness and broad growth from broad decline.

  3. 3
    Open counter-signals

    Check supply, labor and migration before assigning a cause.

  4. 4
    Stress the deal

    Do not carry the historical spread unchanged into a property forecast.

Questions readers ask

Keep the boundary of the evidence visible

These answers are part of the article and the structured data. They state what the current sources can support—and where property-level evidence must take over.

Does faster rent growth mean gross yield improved?

Not necessarily. Gross yield depends on the current rent and current value levels. Growth rates describe change; they do not replace the ratio or a property-level operating model.

Should home values and rents eventually move together?

There is no dependable timetable for convergence. Financing, owner demand, supply, incomes and local shocks can keep the series apart. Treat reversion as a scenario, not a promise.

Is the fastest rent-growth market the best investment?

No. Fast growth may accompany affordability pressure, new supply, volatility or a low starting point. The current price, yield, expenses and durability of demand still matter.

Continue with the evidence

Move from historical divergence to an explicit scenario

Review the full growth study, then replace index history with the property price, achievable rent and downside assumptions you can defend.

Stress-test a deal Open full research
Source ledger

The releases behind the examples

Every market figure above is rebuilt from these current public-source releases.

cbsa delineationOMB/BLS delineation — metro geographyOMB July 2023 delineation · retrieved 2026-07-30zillow zhviZillow ZHVI — metro home valuesMetro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · retrieved 2026-07-26zillow zoriZillow ZORI — metro market rentsMetro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · retrieved 2026-07-26