Adrian, MI

Adrian, MI presents a decision record with direct but deliberately incomplete evidence. Zillow supplies rent and home-value indexes at June 30, 2026, while BLS, Census Building Permits, Redfin, IRS, HMDA, FEMA, Census ACS and HUD address different parts of the market. The packet explicitly states that the trailing-12-month Zillow rent change is unavailable. Accordingly, this report does not assign a score or rank. That absence matters because a current asking-rent level cannot demonstrate rent momentum. The central diligence questions are whether Zillow’s rent/value relationship is applicable to the intended tenure, whether income and HUD benchmarks set a meaningful affordability boundary, and whether labor, construction, resale, migration, mortgage-purchase and hazard evidence alter the uncertainty around that reading.

Zillow’s June 30, 2026 home-value index is $247,832, with a 5.83% year-over-year change. Its asking-rent index is $1,066, and the supplied gross yield is 5.16%. Taken together, those readings show the current relationship between a Zillow rent index and a Zillow home-value index, alongside an observed annual movement in the value index. They do not show whether rents have risen, fallen or remained stable over the unavailable trailing 12-month period. Nor do they convert an asking-rent index into achieved lease rents, operating income or a net return. The value increase and current gross-yield reading can be examined side by side, but the absent Zillow rent-change series prevents a claim that rental economics are strengthening or weakening over that period.

Census ACS reports median household income of $70,518. The packet’s reported rent-to-income measure is 18.13%, and its price-to-income measure is 3.51. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $1,166. Zillow’s $1,066 asking-rent index is 0.914 of that HUD benchmark, a computed difference of $100. This is an affordability boundary rather than a household-level conclusion: Census ACS measures aggregate income, Zillow measures asking rents, and HUD Fair Market Rent is a distinct two-bedroom benchmark. The figures do not establish the rent paid by a particular household, the distribution of incomes, household size, lease availability, or affordability for a specific dwelling. Their practical value is in defining which gap needs validation before treating the aggregate rent figure as locally accessible housing cost.

BLS LAUS reports a 3.37% employment change over the 12 months to May 2026. Census Building Permits reports 172 total permits during 2026 YTD through M06, including 10 in the 5p category; the supplied permit rate is 1.75 per 1,000 residents and the 5p share is 5.8%. Redfin, for its May 2026 period, shows 2.9 months of supply, unchanged from the prior 2.9 months. Its median days on market is 42 rather than 45, a three-day reduction; the sale-to-list ratio is 97.91%; and price drops are 24.81% rather than 26.57%, down 1.76 percentage points. These measures should not be merged into one supply conclusion. Building permits record permitted new housing, Redfin describes for-sale conditions, and BLS describes labor change. None alone identifies occupied rental availability, the intended use of permitted homes, or the tenure composition behind resale inventory.

IRS county-to-county tax-return migration, aggregated to the market, records 1,902 movers in and 2,014 movers out, for net migration of -112. At the same time, the packet reports AGI-in of $60,057 and AGI-out of $57,089, a $2,968 gap in favor of the incoming figure. That is a genuine tension in the aggregate data: the count flow is negative while the reported AGI figures differ in the other direction. It does not establish where movers live, whether they rent or buy, or how long they remain. HMDA adds a separate 2024 purchase-mortgage occupancy measure: 1,080 total purchases, 45 investor purchases, and a 4.17% investor share. HMDA therefore identifies investor participation within its purchase-mortgage evidence, not an all-property ownership share. IRS migration and HMDA investor participation are complementary demand indicators, but they should not be treated as interchangeable evidence.

FEMA’s National Risk Index identifies inland flood as Adrian’s top hazard, within the water hazard type. The reported National Risk Index score is 69.9 and the climate-loss ratio is 0.001071. Those are market-level risk signals and expected-annual-loss evidence, but the packet does not provide a parcel-level exposure finding, insurance premium, deductible, repair cost, tax cost, or a stated interpretation threshold for either FEMA measure. Available cost-level evidence is limited to Zillow’s $247,832 home-value index, Zillow’s $1,066 asking-rent index, HUD’s $1,166 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent, Census ACS income, and the reported gross yield. Those measures are insufficient to translate FEMA risk into an operating-cost conclusion. The appropriate unresolved issue is whether location-specific hazard disclosures and actual cost records differ materially from the market-level FEMA indicators.

The combined record supports a structured investigation rather than a directional verdict. Zillow supplies a current rent/value relationship but no trailing rent change; Census ACS and HUD describe an aggregate affordability boundary; BLS, Census Building Permits and Redfin show labor, permitted supply and resale conditions that measure different markets; IRS and HMDA show mixed migration and mortgage-purchase participation evidence; and FEMA flags inland-flood risk without cost detail. The next evidence needed is achieved lease-rent and turnover information relative to Zillow’s asking-rent index, the tenure and timing of permitted housing, the relationship between the BLS employment reading and local renter demand, the scope of investor activity beyond HMDA’s defined purchase-mortgage evidence, and documented hazard-related costs. Until those questions are answered, the most defensible interpretation is that Adrian has meaningful direct signals but not the rent-history input required for a score or rank.