Moving from Durham to Raleigh

IRS SOI migration 2022–2023 recorded 5,184 tax-return households moving from Durham to Raleigh. The corridor represented 25.33% of Durham’s outbound returns and 11.94% of Raleigh’s inbound returns, while AGI per return for the flow was $80,233.60. Across all measured origin-destination links, Raleigh recorded a net gain of 6,995 tax-return households, compared with 601 for Durham. Those figures establish a visible tax-filer corridor and different net balances; they do not identify renter tenure, lease formation or subsequent housing choices.

The destination also has the stronger recent employment and household-income readings. BLS CES payroll employment for the 12 months through June 2026 rose 2.15% in Raleigh and fell 0.67% in Durham, a contrast of 2.82 percentage points. Separately, the ACS 2024 five-year release placed Raleigh median household income $16,603 above Durham. For rental underwriting, these are labor-income screens rather than evidence of collections, tenant quality or unit-level occupancy. The next diligence question is how the subject property’s tenant pool, lease history and employer exposure compare with the metro-level contrast.

The June 2026 Zillow releases show the central housing-cost tension. Raleigh’s metro Zillow rent was $1,689 per month versus $1,691 in Durham, while Raleigh’s metro ZHVI benchmark was $438,138 versus $415,643. A moving household therefore encounters almost no difference in the broad Zillow rent observation but a higher destination home-value benchmark. For an owner, that pairing reads as a thinner top-line yield screen before taxes, insurance, maintenance, management, vacancy assumptions and financing terms enter the property analysis.

Using June 2026 Zillow releases and ACS 2024 five-year income, the cross-release rent-to-income screens are 20.25% for Raleigh and 24.3% for Durham; the price-to-income screens are 4.38 times and 4.98 times, respectively. These are directional screening ratios, not current household budget shares. BEA’s 2024 Regional Price Parities, with the national level set to 100, place Raleigh’s housing measure at 103.476 and Durham’s at 98.934. Thus Raleigh pairs nearly equal Zillow rent and lower income-based screening ratios with a higher local housing price level and home-value benchmark. Household circumstances and property economics still require separate budgets.

Redfin’s metro tracker through May 1, 2026 reported three months of supply in both markets. Raleigh’s median days on market was 34 versus 32 in Durham, and its price-drop share was 37.73% versus 31.19%. That combination complicates a reading based only on Raleigh’s higher home-value benchmark: the destination showed somewhat longer marketing time and more price reductions despite equal reported months of supply. These are seller-side descriptive measures, not evidence of rental vacancy, achievable rent or property condition. The next property question is whether current listings and recent transactions in the relevant submarket resemble the metro pattern.

The permits-per-thousand-residents comparison combines Census BPS 2026 YTD through M06 permit counts with ACS 2024 population: 14.23 for Raleigh and 17.48 for Durham. It is a cross-period descriptive screen, not a same-period supply rate, and it does not prove deliveries, vacancy or rent pressure. In the FEMA National Risk Index counties release, Raleigh’s modeled climate/hazard loss ratio was 0.1197% versus 0.1289% for Durham; inland flood was the top hazard label for both. The lower destination ratio does not settle address-level exposure, insurance terms, drainage, elevation or prior-loss diligence.