Moving from Durham to Raleigh

IRS SOI migration for 2022–2023 recorded 5,184 tax-return households moving from Durham to Raleigh, associated with 8,134 exemptions. The corridor represented 25.33% of Durham’s outbound returns but 11.94% of Raleigh’s inbound returns, placing it differently within each market’s migration base. Average AGI was $80,233.60 per corridor return. IRS flow means tax-return households. It does not identify renters, every mover or future demand. The figures therefore describe a measured tax-filer corridor, not a count of prospective Raleigh tenants.

The resident-income and payroll screens point more clearly toward Raleigh, although the mover-income comparison is much narrower. ACS 2024 five-year median household income was $100,103 in Raleigh and $83,500 in Durham. In the IRS release, average AGI on incoming returns was $83,338 for Raleigh and $83,205 for Durham, so the income difference among incoming filers was small even though the resident medians were farther apart. BLS CES payroll employment over the 12 months to 2026-06 rose 2.15% in Raleigh and fell 0.67% in Durham. That contrast is a labor-market screen, not evidence of property vacancy or collections. The next diligence question is the target tenant base’s employer concentration, income documentation and renewal history.

Zillow ZORI on 2026-06-30 showed monthly market rent of $1,689 in Raleigh and $1,691 in Durham. That near-parity is the most direct change for a household entering a typical asking-rent search, but it is not a complete lease budget. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent was $1,750 in Raleigh and $1,711 in Durham. Fair Market Rent is a HUD program standard, not a Zillow market-rent observation. The two measures should remain separate when checking voucher standards, unit type, utilities, concessions and the rent actually quoted for a particular property.

For ownership-side underwriting, Zillow’s metro ZHVI home-value benchmark on 2026-06-30 was $438,138 in Raleigh and $415,643 in Durham. It is a metro Zillow home-value benchmark, not transaction-price or comparable-sale evidence. The market-level gross-yield screen was 4.63% in Raleigh and 4.88% in Durham, placing the higher Raleigh benchmark alongside a lower yield screen. A separate rent-to-income screen combines ZORI on 2026-06-30 with ACS 2024 income: 20.25% for Raleigh and 24.3% for Durham. Because those vintages differ, these are cross-release directional screens rather than current household budget shares. Property-specific rent, taxes, insurance, condition and financing remain the next underwriting inputs.

Redfin’s metro tracker through 2026-05-01 showed three months of supply in both Raleigh and Durham. Raleigh’s median time on market was 34 days versus 32 in Durham, while price drops appeared on 37.73% of Raleigh listings and 31.19% of Durham listings. These are descriptive resale-market contrasts, not proof of rental vacancy, tenant bargaining power or the discount available on a particular acquisition. For underwriting, the relevant follow-up is whether the target submarket and property type show the same listing history, concessions and time-to-lease pattern.

The Census BPS 2026 year-to-date period through M06, combined with ACS 2024 population, produced a permits-per-thousand-residents screen of 14.23 for Raleigh and 17.48 for Durham. This is a cross-period descriptive screen, not a same-period supply rate, and permits do not prove deliveries, vacancy or rent pressure. In FEMA’s NRI counties release, Raleigh’s modeled climate/hazard loss ratio was 0.1197%, compared with 0.1289% for Durham; inland flood was the top listed hazard in both. FEMA’s measure is a modeled climate/hazard loss ratio only. The next question is the property’s flood zone, elevation, prior claims, drainage, insurance quote and deductible structure.