Migration + employment

Where migration and employment signals disagree

Which metros show positive employment with net out-migration—or net in-migration while employment is declining?

A single growth label hides important tension. This study joins IRS mover flows with the current named BLS employment series and isolates metros where the signs point in opposite directions.

Starting universe
696
metros with both signals
Signals disagree
289
strict opposite signs
Jobs up / movers out
140
positive jobs, negative migration
Movers in / jobs down
149
positive migration, negative jobs
What the join prevents

“Growth” splits into two different stories

Of 696 metros with both inputs, 289 carry strict opposite signs. In 140, employment is positive while IRS net migration is negative. Another 149 show positive migration while employment is declining. A label such as “people are moving there” or “jobs are growing” would hide half of the current evidence in every one of these rows.

Kingsville, TXhas the strongest per-resident out-migration magnitude inside the jobs-up group at -5.8 net movers per 1,000, alongside 1.4% employment growth. In the opposite group, Jefferson, GArecords 21.4 net movers per 1,000 while employment changes -2.6%.

A sign disagreement is a research queue: inspect the periods, labor source, mover scale and housing response before repeating a single growth narrative.

The mismatch is not a timing model. IRS tax-return migration covers an earlier annual interval, while BLS employment is the current available metro series. People can also move for retirement, education, household formation or costs that do not map neatly to current payrolls. The useful result is narrower: these metros require both signals to be discussed, because either one by itself produces an incomplete decision frame.

Opposite-sign metros only

Two ways a “growth market” story can split

Upper-left: migration in while jobs fall. Lower-right: jobs rise while migration leaves.

Metro migration and employment sign disagreementsScatter plot of metros with opposite signs for net IRS migration per one thousand residents and year-over-year BLS employment change.-7.9%-4.6%-1.3%2.0%5.2%-6.31.18.415.823.1Jefferson, GA: 21.4 net movers per 1,000, -2.6% jobsPort St. Lucie, FL: 10.6 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsPunta Gorda, FL: 9.3 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsWilliston, ND: 8.6 net movers per 1,000, -1.2% jobsAlbemarle, NC: 8.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.9% jobsLake Havasu City, AZ: 8.0 net movers per 1,000, -1.2% jobsMorristown, TN: 7.2 net movers per 1,000, -1.1% jobsOkeechobee, FL: 6.0 net movers per 1,000, -1.2% jobsBend, OR: 5.9 net movers per 1,000, -0.4% jobsKingsville, TX: -5.8 net movers per 1,000, 1.4% jobsJohnson City, TN: 5.8 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsDurant, OK: 5.8 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsPlainview, TX: -5.8 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsSebastian, FL: 5.7 net movers per 1,000, -1.0% jobsIthaca, NY: -5.6 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsSanford, NC: 5.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsBurlington, NC: 5.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsSalinas, CA: -5.4 net movers per 1,000, 1.4% jobsAnn Arbor, MI: -5.4 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsJacksonville, FL: 5.3 net movers per 1,000, -0.4% jobsChampaign, IL: -5.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.6% jobsHagerstown, MD: 5.2 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsGrand Junction, CO: 5.2 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsCullman, AL: 5.1 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsScottsboro, AL: 4.9 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsNew Bern, NC: 4.9 net movers per 1,000, -1.0% jobsJacksonville, NC: 4.8 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsSanta Maria, CA: -4.8 net movers per 1,000, 0.3% jobsMorehead City, NC: 4.7 net movers per 1,000, -0.0% jobsHuntsville, TX: 4.6 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsAlbany, OR: 4.5 net movers per 1,000, -1.4% jobsChattanooga, TN: 4.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsCleveland, TN: 4.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsState College, PA: -4.4 net movers per 1,000, 2.3% jobsSan Jose, CA: -4.4 net movers per 1,000, 1.4% jobsSanta Cruz, CA: -4.4 net movers per 1,000, 0.7% jobsLaredo, TX: -4.4 net movers per 1,000, 1.1% jobsNorth Platte, NE: -4.3 net movers per 1,000, 4.9% jobsCalhoun, GA: 4.2 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsDover, DE: 4.1 net movers per 1,000, -0.9% jobsBridgeport, CT: -4.1 net movers per 1,000, 0.4% jobsStaunton, VA: 4.0 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsMissoula, MT: 4.0 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsLake City, FL: 4.0 net movers per 1,000, -1.1% jobsBeeville, TX: -4.0 net movers per 1,000, 1.0% jobsNew York, NY: -4.0 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsHinesville, GA: 3.9 net movers per 1,000, -1.4% jobsKahului, HI: -3.9 net movers per 1,000, 1.2% jobsHelena, MT: 3.9 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsEl Centro, CA: -3.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.9% jobsShelby, NC: 3.9 net movers per 1,000, -0.8% jobsEagle Pass, TX: -3.9 net movers per 1,000, 2.1% jobsHickory, NC: 3.8 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsWatertown, NY: -3.7 net movers per 1,000, 1.7% jobsNewport, OR: 3.7 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsBrevard, NC: 3.6 net movers per 1,000, -0.4% jobsJuneau, AK: -3.6 net movers per 1,000, 1.6% jobsBorger, TX: -3.6 net movers per 1,000, 4.0% jobsShelbyville, TN: 3.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsWaycross, GA: 3.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsMinot, ND: -3.4 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsSan Francisco, CA: -3.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsElkhart, IN: -3.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.9% jobsShawnee, OK: 3.2 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsNogales, AZ: -3.2 net movers per 1,000, 1.1% jobsBurley, ID: -3.2 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsIdaho Falls, ID: 3.2 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsButte, MT: 3.1 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsCheyenne, WY: 3.1 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsYakima, WA: -3.1 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsBinghamton, NY: -3.0 net movers per 1,000, 1.3% jobsBellingham, WA: 3.0 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsElizabeth City, NC: 3.0 net movers per 1,000, -1.7% jobsParagould, AR: 3.0 net movers per 1,000, -1.7% jobsArdmore, OK: 3.0 net movers per 1,000, -1.2% jobsEast Stroudsburg, PA: -2.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.9% jobsGrand Forks, ND: -2.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.3% jobsStarkville, MS: -2.8 net movers per 1,000, 1.0% jobsBozeman, MT: 2.8 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsTalladega, AL: 2.7 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsUkiah, CA: -2.7 net movers per 1,000, 0.4% jobsNapa, CA: -2.7 net movers per 1,000, 0.7% jobsOpelousas, LA: -2.7 net movers per 1,000, 1.8% jobsWarner Robins, GA: 2.7 net movers per 1,000, -1.3% jobsCape Coral, FL: 2.7 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsErie, PA: -2.7 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsSalina, KS: -2.6 net movers per 1,000, 1.5% jobsIowa City, IA: -2.6 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsHammond, LA: 2.5 net movers per 1,000, -1.8% jobsRed Bluff, CA: -2.5 net movers per 1,000, 0.7% jobsShow Low, AZ: 2.5 net movers per 1,000, -2.1% jobsLima, OH: -2.5 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsFarmington, MO: 2.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsEl Paso, TX: -2.4 net movers per 1,000, 0.6% jobsBuffalo, NY: -2.4 net movers per 1,000, 0.6% jobsCortland, NY: -2.4 net movers per 1,000, 3.0% jobsShreveport, LA: -2.4 net movers per 1,000, 0.0% jobsConcord, NH: 2.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsGrants Pass, OR: 2.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.8% jobsChicago, IL: -2.4 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsSyracuse, NY: -2.3 net movers per 1,000, 1.2% jobsDes Moines, IA: 2.3 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsMonroe, LA: -2.3 net movers per 1,000, 1.1% jobsMerced, CA: -2.3 net movers per 1,000, 3.5% jobsDenver, CO: 2.3 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsBremerton, WA: 2.2 net movers per 1,000, -0.4% jobsUrban Honolulu, HI: -2.2 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsDuncan, OK: 2.2 net movers per 1,000, -2.9% jobsAugusta, ME: 2.2 net movers per 1,000, -1.0% jobsRutland, VT: 2.2 net movers per 1,000, -2.5% jobsSafford, AZ: 2.2 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsFargo, ND: 2.1 net movers per 1,000, -1.1% jobsAthens, OH: -2.1 net movers per 1,000, 1.0% jobsNorfolk, NE: -2.1 net movers per 1,000, 0.7% jobsMarinette, WI: 2.1 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsDeRidder, LA: -2.1 net movers per 1,000, 0.6% jobsRochester, NY: -2.1 net movers per 1,000, 0.4% jobsAlamogordo, NM: 2.0 net movers per 1,000, -0.8% jobsOklahoma City, OK: 2.0 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsSierra Vista, AZ: 2.0 net movers per 1,000, -4.0% jobsHanford, CA: -1.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.9% jobsRocky Mount, NC: 1.9 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsTallahassee, FL: -1.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsNiles, MI: -1.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.5% jobsBangor, ME: 1.9 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsNaples, FL: 1.9 net movers per 1,000, -1.4% jobsWilson, NC: 1.9 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsMartin, TN: 1.8 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsHudson, NY: -1.8 net movers per 1,000, 0.0% jobsVisalia, CA: -1.8 net movers per 1,000, 0.6% jobsSaginaw, MI: -1.8 net movers per 1,000, 1.6% jobsKapaa, HI: -1.8 net movers per 1,000, 0.7% jobsMadison, WI: 1.8 net movers per 1,000, -0.4% jobsModesto, CA: -1.7 net movers per 1,000, 0.7% jobsWahpeton, ND: -1.7 net movers per 1,000, 0.3% jobsBillings, MT: 1.7 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsAndrews, TX: -1.7 net movers per 1,000, 1.4% jobsOneonta, NY: -1.7 net movers per 1,000, 1.0% jobsEau Claire, WI: 1.7 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsMarion, NC: 1.7 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsSalt Lake City, UT: -1.7 net movers per 1,000, 1.3% jobsSan Diego, CA: -1.7 net movers per 1,000, 0.3% jobsNorth Wilkesboro, NC: 1.7 net movers per 1,000, -2.1% jobsSandusky, OH: -1.7 net movers per 1,000, 2.1% jobsCorning, NY: -1.7 net movers per 1,000, 0.0% jobsCoos Bay, OR: 1.6 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsFort Smith, AR: 1.6 net movers per 1,000, -0.8% jobsMarquette, MI: 1.6 net movers per 1,000, -3.4% jobsRuston, LA: -1.6 net movers per 1,000, 2.6% jobsGadsden, AL: 1.6 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsOgdensburg, NY: -1.6 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsOlean, NY: -1.6 net movers per 1,000, 1.5% jobsSilver City, NM: 1.6 net movers per 1,000, -2.2% jobsCumberland, MD: 1.6 net movers per 1,000, -2.3% jobsBrainerd, MN: 1.6 net movers per 1,000, -1.5% jobsFresno, CA: -1.5 net movers per 1,000, 0.9% jobsRochester, MN: -1.5 net movers per 1,000, 0.4% jobsTucson, AZ: 1.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsBrookings, SD: -1.5 net movers per 1,000, 1.6% jobsHermiston, OR: -1.5 net movers per 1,000, 0.9% jobsHartford, CT: -1.5 net movers per 1,000, 0.3% jobsAda, OK: 1.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsRolla, MO: -1.5 net movers per 1,000, 1.9% jobsLogan, UT: -1.5 net movers per 1,000, 0.7% jobsAuburn, IN: 1.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsThe Dalles, OR: -1.4 net movers per 1,000, 1.1% jobsChico, CA: 1.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsOgden, UT: 1.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.9% jobsCadillac, MI: 1.4 net movers per 1,000, -3.1% jobsElko, NV: -1.4 net movers per 1,000, 1.6% jobsMuskogee, OK: 1.4 net movers per 1,000, -1.4% jobsRome, GA: 1.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsBakersfield, CA: -1.4 net movers per 1,000, 1.6% jobsBloomsburg, PA: 1.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.9% jobsAtlantic City, NJ: -1.4 net movers per 1,000, 1.6% jobsHolland, MI: 1.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.8% jobsValdosta, GA: 1.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsThomasville, GA: 1.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsMarshalltown, IA: -1.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.8% jobsLawrence, KS: -1.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsDalton, GA: 1.3 net movers per 1,000, -2.3% jobsBarnstable Town, MA: -1.3 net movers per 1,000, 2.5% jobsVidalia, GA: 1.3 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsLaurel, MS: -1.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.8% jobsFairmont, WV: 1.3 net movers per 1,000, -1.2% jobsKokomo, IN: 1.2 net movers per 1,000, -2.0% jobsPhiladelphia, PA: -1.2 net movers per 1,000, 0.3% jobsCorpus Christi, TX: -1.2 net movers per 1,000, 0.8% jobsBeaumont, TX: -1.2 net movers per 1,000, 0.3% jobsLumberton, NC: 1.2 net movers per 1,000, -1.7% jobsPueblo, CO: 1.2 net movers per 1,000, -0.9% jobsBeaver Dam, WI: -1.1 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsCañon City, CO: 1.1 net movers per 1,000, -1.4% jobsCasper, WY: 1.1 net movers per 1,000, -1.0% jobsOshkosh, WI: 1.1 net movers per 1,000, -0.9% jobsMount Pleasant, TX: 1.0 net movers per 1,000, -7.3% jobsColorado Springs, CO: 1.0 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsDurham, NC: 1.0 net movers per 1,000, -0.7% jobsMcAllen, TX: -1.0 net movers per 1,000, 1.1% jobsIndianapolis, IN: 1.0 net movers per 1,000, -0.4% jobsFond du Lac, WI: -1.0 net movers per 1,000, 0.6% jobsTorrington, CT: 1.0 net movers per 1,000, -2.5% jobsHeber, UT: -0.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.7% jobsLa Grande, OR: -0.9 net movers per 1,000, 1.0% jobsDuBois, PA: -0.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.0% jobsFort Madison, IA: -0.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsJamestown, NY: -0.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsCape Girardeau, MO: -0.9 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsMoses Lake, WA: 0.9 net movers per 1,000, -0.9% jobsTifton, GA: 0.9 net movers per 1,000, -0.6% jobsReading, PA: -0.8 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsLewiston, ID: 0.8 net movers per 1,000, -0.4% jobsMartinsville, VA: 0.8 net movers per 1,000, -4.3% jobsTupelo, MS: 0.8 net movers per 1,000, -0.9% jobsGoldsboro, NC: 0.8 net movers per 1,000, -1.2% jobsAppleton, WI: 0.8 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsSacramento, CA: -0.7 net movers per 1,000, 0.7% jobsMeadville, PA: -0.7 net movers per 1,000, 0.4% jobsSunbury, PA: -0.7 net movers per 1,000, 0.5% jobsGlens Falls, NY: 0.7 net movers per 1,000, -0.8% jobsTaos, NM: 0.7 net movers per 1,000, -1.3% jobsSt. Joseph, MO: -0.6 net movers per 1,000, 1.0% jobsFarmington, NM: -0.6 net movers per 1,000, 1.5% jobsCollege Station, TX: -0.6 net movers per 1,000, 0.9% jobsMurray, KY: 0.6 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsBranson, MO: -0.6 net movers per 1,000, 0.9% jobsSeattle, WA: 0.6 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsWisconsin Rapids, WI: 0.6 net movers per 1,000, -2.4% jobsAthens, GA: -0.6 net movers per 1,000, 2.3% jobsAlbuquerque, NM: 0.6 net movers per 1,000, -0.8% jobsPonca City, OK: -0.6 net movers per 1,000, 0.6% jobsHarrisburg, PA: 0.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.0% jobsJanesville, WI: 0.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsYuma, AZ: 0.5 net movers per 1,000, -2.4% jobsTopeka, KS: -0.5 net movers per 1,000, 1.3% jobsFlorence, SC: 0.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsYuba City, CA: -0.5 net movers per 1,000, 2.1% jobsBellefontaine, OH: -0.5 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsOntario, OR: -0.5 net movers per 1,000, 0.5% jobsJackson, TN: 0.5 net movers per 1,000, -0.2% jobsWatertown, WI: 0.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.8% jobsBurlington, IA: -0.4 net movers per 1,000, 1.4% jobsCincinnati, OH: -0.4 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsOwensboro, KY: -0.4 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsMidland, MI: 0.4 net movers per 1,000, -2.5% jobsStephenville, TX: -0.4 net movers per 1,000, 4.4% jobsAlexandria, MN: 0.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.8% jobsVallejo, CA: -0.4 net movers per 1,000, 0.5% jobsAuburn, NY: -0.4 net movers per 1,000, 1.3% jobsDuluth, MN: 0.4 net movers per 1,000, -0.5% jobsMinneapolis, MN: -0.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsAngola, IN: 0.3 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsWeirton, WV: -0.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsRacine, WI: 0.3 net movers per 1,000, -0.8% jobsRiverside, CA: -0.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.5% jobsBartlesville, OK: 0.3 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsGrand Rapids, MI: 0.3 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsSault Ste. Marie, MI: 0.3 net movers per 1,000, -1.4% jobsSalem, OR: -0.3 net movers per 1,000, 1.4% jobsHuntington, WV: -0.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.4% jobsIndiana, PA: -0.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.8% jobsAshland, OH: 0.3 net movers per 1,000, -1.8% jobsSanta Rosa, CA: -0.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.5% jobsLincoln, NE: -0.3 net movers per 1,000, 0.6% jobsLake Charles, LA: -0.3 net movers per 1,000, 1.3% jobsRussellville, AR: -0.2 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsMuncie, IN: 0.2 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsUnion City, TN: -0.2 net movers per 1,000, 0.9% jobsWilmington, OH: -0.2 net movers per 1,000, 1.4% jobsScranton, PA: -0.2 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsTexarkana, TX: -0.2 net movers per 1,000, 0.1% jobsSan Angelo, TX: -0.2 net movers per 1,000, 0.3% jobsManchester, NH: 0.2 net movers per 1,000, -1.3% jobsCanton, OH: 0.1 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsMansfield, OH: 0.1 net movers per 1,000, -1.1% jobsAlbany, NY: -0.1 net movers per 1,000, 0.8% jobsStockton, CA: -0.1 net movers per 1,000, 1.8% jobsVictoria, TX: -0.1 net movers per 1,000, 0.4% jobsShawano, WI: 0.1 net movers per 1,000, -0.1% jobsRedding, CA: -0.1 net movers per 1,000, 2.1% jobsBay City, TX: -0.1 net movers per 1,000, 3.9% jobsSevierville, TN: -0.1 net movers per 1,000, 0.2% jobsMount Vernon, OH: 0.1 net movers per 1,000, -0.9% jobsClearlake, CA: -0.1 net movers per 1,000, 0.6% jobsDanville, VA: 0.0 net movers per 1,000, -1.2% jobsLancaster, PA: -0.0 net movers per 1,000, 0.8% jobsProvidence, RI: 0.0 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsBlackfoot, ID: 0.0 net movers per 1,000, -0.3% jobsEugene, OR: 0.0 net movers per 1,000, -1.3% jobsJeffersonPort St. LuciePunta GordaWillistonYear-over-year employment change →Net migration per 1,000 →
Only strict sign disagreements appear. The chart does not imply that the two series cover the same period or cause one another.
Decision table

The first 24 rows, with a path to the underlying market

289 total rows Download all rows
Largest per-resident migration and employment sign disagreements
RankMetroJobs YoYNet migrationPer 1,000PatternOpen
1Jefferson, GALAUS-2.6%1,81421.4Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
2Port St. Lucie, FLCES-0.1%5,54710.6Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
3Punta Gorda, FLCES-0.7%1,8799.3Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
4Williston, NDLAUS-1.2%3418.6Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
5Albemarle, NCLAUS-0.9%5478.5Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
6Lake Havasu City, AZCES-1.2%1,7698.0Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
7Morristown, TNCES-1.1%8867.2Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
8Okeechobee, FLLAUS-1.2%2436.0Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
9Bend, ORCES-0.4%1,5295.9Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
10Kingsville, TXLAUS1.4%-178-5.8Jobs up · migration outMarket evidence
11Johnson City, TNCES-0.3%1,2255.8Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
12Durant, OKLAUS-0.1%2785.8Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
13Plainview, TXLAUS0.2%-215-5.8Jobs up · migration outMarket evidence
14Sebastian, FLCES-1.0%9515.7Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
15Ithaca, NYCES0.2%-584-5.6Jobs up · migration outMarket evidence
16Sanford, NCLAUS-0.6%3655.5Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
17Burlington, NCCES-0.7%9755.5Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
18Salinas, CACES1.4%-2,379-5.4Jobs up · migration outMarket evidence
19Ann Arbor, MICES0.1%-1,993-5.4Jobs up · migration outMarket evidence
20Jacksonville, FLCES-0.4%8,9705.3Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
21Champaign, ILCES0.6%-1,258-5.3Jobs up · migration outMarket evidence
22Hagerstown, MDCES-0.2%1,5875.2Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
23Grand Junction, COCES-0.2%8275.2Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence
24Cullman, ALLAUS-0.1%4645.1Migration in · jobs downMarket evidence

The visible table is intentionally limited for reading. The CSV contains every row that passes the printed inclusion rule.

Reproduce the screen

Inclusion first, interpretation second.

Start with every RentMarker metro that has population, IRS net migration and a named BLS year-over-year employment change. Publish only strict sign disagreements: jobs above zero with migration below zero, or jobs below zero with migration above zero. Rank by absolute net migration per 1,000 residents.

Methodology version: v2

Method

  1. County IRS inflows and outflows are aggregated through the current official metro-county crosswalk.
  2. Net migration per 1,000 divides the metro net mover count by current ACS population and multiplies by 1,000.
  3. The employment side uses the metro's current named BLS series and preserves that source in every row.

Counter-signals

  • IRS migration and BLS employment cover different periods, populations and economic concepts.
  • A sign disagreement is a prompt for investigation, not evidence that one source is wrong or that a turn is imminent.
  • Large metros can have substantial mover counts while the per-resident rate remains modest.

Limitations

  • IRS migration omits non-filers and measures tax-return moves, not every resident move.
  • The analysis does not identify why people moved or which industries drove employment change.
  • Metro boundaries aggregate counties and can conceal divergent city or suburban patterns.
Move from market to deal

Use the study to narrow the question—not to skip underwriting.

Open a market for its supply, affordability, migration and risk context. Compare a deliberate substitute, then bring a real property price, rent and expenses into the stress test.

Stress-test a dealOpen curated comparisons
Source vintages

Every input release used by this study

Release and retrieval dates stay visible so a reader can tell whether two measures describe the same moment.

acs populationCensus ACS 5-year — populationACS 2024 5-year · retrieved 2026-07-26bls cesBLS CES — payroll employmentCES SM current · retrieved 2026-07-26bls lausBLS LAUS — resident employmentLAUS current · retrieved 2026-07-26cbsa delineationOMB/BLS delineation — metro geographyOMB July 2023 delineation · retrieved 2026-07-30irs migrationIRS SOI — county migration and mover incomeSOI migration 2022-2023 · retrieved 2026-07-26