Exact 1/3/5-year endpoints, 80% coverage and 36 consecutive returns.
RentMarker Research · ZIP evidence
Fast rent growth is not the same thing as a stable rent path.
We screened 2,902 ZIP histories using exact one-, three- and five-year endpoints, then kept observed monthly variability beside every growth figure.
Positive three-year CAGR with stability at or above the national median.
One-year CAGR exceeds the three-year pace by at least two percentage points.
Variability at or above +3.4% or drawdown of 15% or more.
The national result is a dispersion, not a winner list.
The median eligible ZIP posted +1.9% exact one-year annual growth through 2026-06. But ZIPs reaching a similar endpoint can take very different monthly paths. A smooth series and a series that fell sharply before recovering should not be treated as equivalent evidence.
The balanced view therefore gives 60% weight to momentum and 40% to stability. Momentum itself combines the national percentile of one-year growth at 60% and three-year growth at 40%. Stability reverses the percentile of annualized monthly variability. Those weights organize discovery; they do not estimate future appreciation, occupancy, cash flow or investment return.
Momentum and stability can disagree
The top 500 balanced rows show why a single growth column hides useful context.
Highest one-year readings need scrutiny
Exact endpoint growth can still coexist with drawdowns and irregular monthly changes.
Five evidence patterns, each answering a different question
Categories are deterministic descriptions of the stored path, not editorial labels.
Balanced discovery order
Leading rows after keeping variability visible
Open reports only where a full ZIP article is already published.
| ZIP / place | Rent | 1Y CAGR | 3Y CAGR | Variability | Balanced | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60657 · Chicago, ILCook County | $2,542 | +8.1% | +7.0% | +1.5% | 98.3 | Stable growth |
| 60613 · Chicago, ILCook County | $2,510 | +8.0% | +6.8% | +1.8% | 97.4 | Stable growth |
| 58201 · Grand Forks, NDGrand Forks County | $1,163 | +7.0% | +7.2% | +1.7% | 97.2 | Stable growth |
| 60618 · Chicago, ILCook County | $2,261 | +6.8% | +6.1% | +1.4% | 96.8 | Stable growth |
| 60640 · Chicago, ILCook County | $2,042 | +6.7% | +6.2% | +1.5% | 96.7 | Stable growth |
| 60626 · Chicago, ILCook County | $1,772 | +6.8% | +6.3% | +1.7% | 96.6 | Stable growth |
| 60622 · Chicago, ILCook County | $2,572 | +7.7% | +5.9% | +1.9% | 96.4 | Stable growth |
| 60647 · Chicago, ILCook County | $2,412 | +6.9% | +6.0% | +1.7% | 96.3 | Stable growth |
| 60660 · Chicago, ILCook County | $1,859 | +6.6% | +6.0% | +1.6% | 96.2 | Stable growth |
| 58703 · Minot, NDWard County | $1,140 | +6.3% | +5.8% | +1.7% | 95.3 | Stable growth |
| 23455 · Virginia Beach, VAVirginia Beach City | $2,282 | +7.2% | +5.5% | +1.9% | 95.2 | Stable growth |
| 23320 · Chesapeake, VAChesapeake City | $2,045 | +7.5% | +5.6% | +2.0% | 95.1 | Stable growth |
Method, counter-signals and limits
Inclusion
A ZIP must end in the common latest month, contain exact observations 12, 36 and 60 months earlier, cover at least 80% of its calendar span and provide at least 36 consecutive monthly changes. Missing months are never interpolated.
Counter-signals
Current asking rent, five-year CAGR, maximum observed drawdown, coverage and local population remain separate. A high relative score can still describe expensive rent, a small population, a recent reversal or a sharp earlier decline.
Boundary
ZORI is an asking-rent index, not a signed lease or property comparable. ZIPs are postal geographies; Census ZCTAs only approximate them. Results do not measure expenses, vacancy, home prices or investability.