Direct rent history, eligible ACS/HUD profile and direct Redfin resale evidence.
RentMarker Research · direct ZIP evidence
A higher rent-price screen can arrive with a slower exit.
We joined 2,855 complete ZIP records to test whether the annual asking-rent-to-sold-price screen agrees with resale speed and household capacity.
At or above the median screen and at or below median days on market.
The rent-price headline and resale-speed counter-signal disagree.
Higher-screen rows also above 30% rent/income and median measured burden.
The decision question
Does a favorable screening ratio survive two independent checks?
The annual rent-price screen is deliberately simple: current monthly Zillow ZIP ZORI multiplied by 12, divided by Redfin’s median sold-home price for the same five-digit ZIP. The national median across the complete set is 4.8%. That number is useful for sorting where a deeper review might begin, but it is not gross yield. ZORI covers an asking-rent index, while the Redfin denominator describes homes that sold; neither source guarantees that the same property type, bedroom count, condition or subarea sits in both universes.
We therefore keep two exit signals beside the screen. The complete-set median is 38 days on market and 3.3 months of supply. Days on market organizes the four research quadrants because it is broadly interpretable, while months of supply remains a counter-signal. Among the higher-screen, faster-resale quadrant, 122 ZIPs still sit above the national median months of supply. Even the two liquidity measures can disagree.
Most-populous complete rows shown
Rent-price screen versus resale time
The chart displays 1,200 population-leading ZIPs for legibility; all calculations and downloads use the complete set.
All complete rows
The higher screen does not imply a faster resale market
National medians produce four descriptive groups. The split is a reading aid, not a ranking formula.
Household counter-signal
Current asking-rent pressure and measured burden answer different questions
ZORI is current asking-rent evidence. ACS burden is a lagged household distribution. Agreement strengthens the pressure signal; disagreement is information, not an error.
How to use the result
Open a ZIP because the signals disagree—not only because one ratio is high.
The 840 higher-screen, slower-resale rows deserve a different underwriting question from the 588 higher-screen, faster-resale rows. A slower resale reading can reflect weaker absorption, more negotiating room, a changing inventory mix or a small rolling sample. The data cannot choose among those explanations. It tells the reader what to investigate with current property comparables, financing terms and a downside holding-period assumption.
Household evidence adds a separate constraint. A high asking-rent-to-income share can support a rent-pressure narrative, but it can also signal that the current asking market is stretched relative to local household capacity. ACS rent burden measures occupied renter households in a different period and housing universe. The study does not average these figures. When both point toward pressure, the result is a stronger reason to inspect concessions, vacancy and realistic rent growth—not permission to assume those rents will be collected.
Counter-signal shortlist
Highest screens among slower-resale ZIPs
These rows are examples to investigate, not recommendations.
| ZIP / place | Asking rent | Rent / price | Sale price | DOM | Supply | Rent / income | Burden |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33442 · Deerfield Beach, FLBroward County | $2,520 | 20.9% | $144,967 | 98d | 6.2 mo | 56.8% | 69.4% |
| 48228 · Detroit, MIWayne County | $1,244 | 20.5% | $72,984 | 45d | 4.7 mo | 48.7% | 61.4% |
| 10458 · New York, NYBronx County | $2,739 | 16.4% | $199,955 | 145d | 13.1 mo | 80.6% | 60.4% |
| 21213 · Baltimore, MDBaltimore City | $1,748 | 16.2% | $129,471 | 60d | 6.1 mo | 40.9% | 51.9% |
| 38127 · Memphis, TNShelby County | $1,085 | 14.7% | $88,680 | 65d | 6.9 mo | 35.3% | 50.2% |
| 32209 · Jacksonville, FLDuval County | $1,197 | 14.6% | $98,478 | 70d | 7.5 mo | 47.1% | 59.9% |
| 70802 · Baton Rouge, LAEast Baton Rouge Parish | $1,169 | 14.5% | $96,978 | 71d | 11.2 mo | 40.7% | 46.0% |
| 63103 · Saint Louis, MOSaint Louis City | $1,537 | 13.8% | $133,970 | 46d | 12.5 mo | 45.0% | 45.4% |
| 19132 · Philadelphia, PAPhiladelphia County | $1,420 | 13.6% | $124,972 | 71d | 9.3 mo | 51.9% | 52.4% |
| 33313 · Lauderhill, FLBroward County | $2,005 | 13.3% | $180,459 | 72d | 10.4 mo | 52.0% | 73.9% |
| 75202 · Dallas, TXDallas County | $2,303 | 12.2% | $227,449 | 77d | 10.3 mo | 20.8% | 29.9% |
| 21217 · Baltimore, MDBaltimore City | $1,637 | 12.1% | $162,463 | 60d | 7.5 mo | 51.1% | 51.8% |
Method, boundaries and reproducibility
Inclusion
A row must belong to the current ZIP ranking run, pass the existing ZIP profile gate, and contain direct Zillow ZIP rent, ACS ZCTA income and burden, HUD two-bedroom rent, plus the newest direct Redfin ZIP sold-price, days-on-market, months-supply and homes-sold measures. Nothing is inherited from a city, county or metro.
Screening ratio
monthly ZIP ZORI × 12 ÷ ZIP median sold-home price. It compares different housing universes and excludes expenses, vacancy, financing, repairs and taxes. It must never be relabelled as property yield, cap rate or expected return.
Quadrants
Higher versus lower screen splits at 4.8%. Faster versus slower resale splits at 38 days. Values exactly on the median enter the higher-screen or faster-resale half. Every complete row lands in exactly one quadrant.
Geography and time
Zillow and Redfin use five-digit ZIP labels; ACS statistics use ZCTAs, which approximate delivery areas. Rent ends 2026-06 and resale ends 2026-06-30. Periods are exposed rather than forced into false simultaneity.
Not measured
The study does not know property condition, bedroom mix, taxes, insurance, HOA charges, rent concessions, signed-lease rent, tenant quality, address-level vacancy or future appreciation. Use the Deal Stress Test only after replacing market screens with the candidate property’s actual inputs.
Rebuild
The CSV includes every derived input, the research quadrant, source periods and method version. The same median rules and ratio formula power the interactive matrix, the static charts and the downloadable table.