Addison County presents a split-signal underwriting case: Zillow pricing softened even as the FHFA index rose, while the supplied rent-to-price relationship must absorb taxes and flood exposure. Income-focused underwriting deserves caution until property-level operating costs and flood insurance are known. Zillow’s June 2026 median home value was $435,446, down 0.17% year over year; its $1,700 monthly median asking rent supports the supplied 4.68% gross yield before expenses. That is a market-rent measure, not a claim about collected rent or net income.
HUD’s two-bedroom FMR was $1,438, a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate; it should not replace measured market rent in yield work. The effective property-tax rate was 1.58%, so the stated gross yield does not represent post-tax cash flow. Separately, FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 5.08%. That index tracks repeat-sale price movement rather than a home value, and it cannot be averaged with Zillow’s change.
Realtor.com’s June 2026 MLS evidence shows visible supply rose 31.3% to 86 active listings, while median marketing time was 36 days; 12.98% of listings carried price reductions and pending listings equaled 69.19% of active listings. These are asking-market supply, marketing-time, seller-concession and pipeline indicators—not closed-sale prices or standalone proof of buyer demand. QCEW’s 2025 workplace data shows slightly higher covered employment and higher covered-worker wages, with Education and health services the largest disclosed private supersector. More tax-return households moved out than in, though inbound movers had higher average AGI. The recorded investor measure was 13 of 233 purchases, or 5.58%, and reflects non-occupant purchase-mortgage participation rather than the full buyer mix.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.09%; it is modeled county-level exposure, not an observed loss or an insurance quote. The record does not publish property flood zone or elevation, insurance premium and deductible, vacancy, operating expenses, financing terms, lease concessions, or closed-sale comparables. Those absences prevent a property-level net-cash-flow, flood-cost, and exit-value conclusion; county aggregates also cannot establish neighborhood demand.