States / Vermont

State rental intelligence

Vermont rental market data

A source-traced view across 4 metro markets and 14 counties. State figures below are labelled medians and totals—not a made-up statewide investment score.

2/4 metros scored14/14 counties with FEMA risk13 sources used in this analysis

Median scored metro40.5out of 100 · 2 measured metros

Vermont identity diorama showing regional landscape, cities, housing, and infrastructure

Median metro home value$390kmedian across published metro values

Median metro rent$1,774monthly · published metro values

Median gross yield5.4%annual rent ÷ price · before costs

Median job trend▼ 2.6%trailing 12-month metro employment

State research brief

Asking rents are rising faster than home values in the limited metros with rent-trend data, while employment readings and net county migration point the other way.

Updated 2026-07-31 · evidence current to the releases listed below.

Across four measured Vermont metros, median home-value growth was 1.4%, while median asking-rent growth was 3.7% among the two metros with rent-trend data, a reported gap of 2.3 percentage points. Barre shows the clearest separation: rent rose 6.5% versus 1.7% for home values. Burlington was nearly aligned at 0.9% rent growth and 0.8% value growth. The opportunity is therefore local rather than a statewide rent-growth conclusion.

Demand and resale data temper that signal. Metro job growth had a median of -2.6%, with the 10th-to-90th-percentile range remaining negative at -2.9% to -1.1%. Across all 14 counties, 17,569 people moved in and 17,943 moved out, for net migration of -374, or -0.6 per 1,000 residents. Screening should require property-level lease evidence, realistic turnover and exit assumptions, operating expenses, taxes and physical-risk review. These data do not establish durable tenant demand or property-level returns.

Median metro asking-rent growth of 3.7% exceeded 1.4% median home-value growth among the available records → prioritize markets with verified lease support, but apply the rent trend only to the two metros measured.

Metro job growth had a -2.6% median and county migration netted to -374 people → do not treat recent asking-rent growth as proof of expanding demand.

Median resale conditions were 5.0 months of supply, 64.5 days on market and a 21.4% price-drop share → include negotiation room and a non-immediate exit in underwriting.

The median county renter-burden share was 47.0% → test renewal and rent-growth assumptions against local tenant incomes rather than relying only on asking rents.

Median metro gross yield was 5.4% before expenses while the median county property-tax rate was 1.7% → screen acquisitions on property-level net operating income, not headline yield.

Price and rent momentum

Barre drives the rent-value split; Burlington barely separates

The median home-value increase was 1.4% across four metros, compared with 3.7% median asking-rent growth across the two metros with rent-growth records. Barre's 6.5% rent increase exceeded its 1.7% value increase by a calculated 4.9 percentage points. Burlington's 0.9% rent increase exceeded its 0.8% value increase by only a calculated 0.1 point.

Faster rent growth does not automatically produce the better entry yield. Barre's measured gross yield was 4.9%, below Burlington's 5.3%. The trend supports closer review of Barre lease comps, but the two-metro rent-growth sample is too limited to apply the 3.7% median to Vermont generally.

Evidence: Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

Employment and household movement

Weak employment and slight outflow do not confirm the rent signal

Measured metro job growth had a -2.6% median and a -2.9% to -1.1% 10th-to-90th-percentile range. The cited readings were -0.5% in Burlington, -2.5% in Rutland and -2.6% in Barre. County movement was also slightly negative: 17,569 people moved in and 17,943 moved out, producing a net loss of 374 across 14 counties.

Aggregate adjusted gross income moving in exceeded the amount moving out by $120,072, providing a counter-signal to the headcount loss. It does not identify which rental markets or property types received that income. The employment and migration releases also cover different periods, so they can challenge the rent thesis but cannot explain the rent increases.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — population · BLS CES — payroll employment · BLS LAUS — resident employment · IRS SOI — county migration and mover income

Supply and resale conditions

Fast sales in Burlington coexist with price cuts, while Rutland offers a slower exit

Across four metros, the median resale market had 5.0 months of supply, 64.5 days on market, a 21.4% price-drop share and a 98.5% sale-to-list ratio. Those figures leave room for acquisition negotiation and argue against assuming an immediate full-price resale.

Burlington was quicker, with 3.4 months of supply and 37 days on market, but 26.9% of listings had price drops. It also recorded 660 permitted units, or 2.9 per 1,000 residents; permits are authorizations rather than completed rentals. Rutland was slower at 69 days and 6.6 months of supply, with a 96.3% sale-to-list ratio. Exit assumptions should therefore be metro-specific rather than based on the four-market median.

Evidence: Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts

Housing stock and tenant conditions

Renter strain coexists with vacancy that is not rental availability

The median county had a 22.3% overall housing vacancy rate, yet 47.0% of renters were burdened by housing costs of at least 30% of income. Bennington County makes the distinction clear: overall vacancy was 28.3%, while 63.6% of renters were burdened. Chittenden County had 4.6% vacancy, a 36.1% renter share and 50.4% renter burden.

The vacancy measure does not identify units available for long-term rental, so it cannot be used as an occupancy assumption. The median of county median years built was 1975.5; single-family homes represented a median 75.8% of county stock, while large multifamily properties represented 2.3%. Those figures support condition and unit-type diligence but do not establish the repair needs of an individual building.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock

Entry cost and affordability

Headline yields cluster near 5%, but tenant stretch varies

Across four metros, the median home value was $390,046, median asking rent was $1,774 and median gross yield was 5.4%. The 10th-to-90th-percentile gross-yield range was narrow at 5.0% to 5.9%. Median price-to-income was 5.0, and median annualized rent-to-income was 26.3%.

Bennington combined a 6.0% gross yield with rent equal to 31.0% of median income. Rutland's figures were 5.5% and 25.6%, while Burlington's were 5.3% and 26.9%. The median asking-rent-to-two-bedroom-FMR ratio was 1.10, meaning asking rent was 10.4% above that benchmark by calculation. These are gross and market-level screens; they exclude operating costs and do not show what a specific unit can lease for.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — household income · HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard · Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

Physical risk and property tax

Property taxes are material, and inland flood is only a county-level lead hazard

The median effective property-tax rate across 14 counties was 1.7%, with a 10th-to-90th-percentile range of 1.4% to 1.8%. The median county tax amount was $4,682.5. Windsor County recorded a 1.8% rate and $5,458 median tax, illustrating why the expense should be modeled separately from gross yield.

Inland flood was FEMA's mutually exclusive leading-hazard label in all 14 counties. The median county hazard-loss ratio was 0.13%, with a 0.09% to 0.14% 10th-to-90th-percentile range; Essex County's ratio was 0.16%. A leading county hazard does not establish parcel exposure, expected insurance cost or building-level loss, so address-level review remains an evidence gap.

Evidence: FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios · Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax

Evidence selected for Vermont

The ranges behind the analysis

Each row keeps its own unit and shows the measured 10th percentile, median and 90th percentile. A single-value row is labelled directly.

Price and rent momentumAre home values and asking rents moving together or separating?

Employment and household movementDo jobs, household movement and mover income point in the same direction?

Supply and resale conditionsWhat do permits, inventory, marketing time and price cuts say about pressure?

Shape of the state

Distribution before conclusion

A statewide median can hide a wide spread. These SVG charts render at build time and carry no chart library or browser-side data request.

Metro score distribution2 scored metros · median 40.5

County evidence coverageEvery gap stays visible as missing—not estimated

Highest measured metro gross yieldsscreening metric only · before expenses and financing

Metro leaderboard

Markets touching Vermont

Multi-state CBSAs appear in every member state. Score is still a metro score; no value is reweighted into a statewide ranking.

#	Metro	Score	Price	Rent	Yield	Jobs
1	Barre, VT	43	$403k	$1,655	4.9%	▼ 2.6%
2	Burlington, VT	38	$476k	$2,085	5.3%	▼ 0.5%

Showing the top 2 scored metros of 4. Unscored metros remain discoverable through the national rankings.

Below the metro line

Largest counties in Vermont

County figures join on the five-digit FIPS code. The table uses measured local values and prints “n/a” wherever a publisher has no record.

County	Population	Price	Rent	Yield	Hazard
Chittenden County, VT	169,758	$520k	$2,092	4.8%	inland flooding
Rutland County, VT	60,425	$320k	$1,466	5.5%	inland flooding
Washington County, VT	60,017	$403k	$1,655	4.9%	inland flooding
Windsor County, VT	57,990	$427k	$1,860	5.2%	inland flooding
Franklin County, VT	50,638	$373k	$1,830	5.9%	inland flooding
Windham County, VT	45,923	$372k	$1,782	5.8%	inland flooding
Addison County, VT	37,664	$435k	$1,700	4.7%	inland flooding
Bennington County, VT	37,269	$377k	$1,893	6.0%	inland flooding
Caledonia County, VT	30,475	$306k	n/a	n/a	inland flooding
Orange County, VT	29,761	$334k	n/a	n/a	inland flooding
Orleans County, VT	27,606	$300k	$1,474	5.9%	inland flooding
Lamoille County, VT	26,148	$497k	$2,021	4.9%	inland flooding

County yield sample10/14counties have the rent needed to compute yield

Statewide net migration−374IRS tax-return households summed across counties

Median investor share7.7%among counties with HMDA purchase records

Sources used in this analysis

Measured releases, not a global source count

Only sources supporting the selected evidence modules are listed here.

Bear case

What can break the thesis

Year-over-year asking-rent growth is available for only two of Vermont's four measured metros, so the central rent-value divergence may not be broad.
Asking-rent indexes do not show signed leases, concessions, unit quality, tenant turnover or collectible rent at a specific property.
Employment and migration releases cover different periods, limiting any conclusion that current labor conditions explain current rent movement.
The county vacancy measure covers overall housing vacancy rather than confirmed long-term rental availability, and county stock medians do not reveal building condition.
Gross yields omit financing and operating expenses, while county tax and hazard measures cannot supply parcel tax bills, insurance quotes or property-level exposure.

Investor questions

Before underwriting a property

Is rent growth broad enough to underwrite across Vermont?

No. Median asking-rent growth was 3.7%, but only two metros had year-over-year rent records. Barre showed a calculated 4.9-point rent-over-value growth spread, while Burlington's spread was only 0.1 point.

Do jobs and migration validate the rent-growth signal?

Not clearly. Median metro job growth was -2.6%, and county movement produced a net loss of 374 people, although aggregate incoming adjusted gross income exceeded outgoing income by $120,072.

How different are resale conditions among the cited metros?

Burlington had 3.4 months of supply and 37 days on market, while Rutland had 6.6 months and 69 days. Burlington's faster market still had a 26.9% price-drop share.

Which measured metro has the largest headline yield?

Bennington had a 6.0% gross yield among the cited entry markets, but rent equaled 31.0% of median income. The figure is before expenses and does not establish property-level cash flow.

Does the FEMA label show that a specific Vermont property will flood?

No. Inland flood is the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label for all 14 counties, but that county classification does not establish parcel exposure, insurance cost or expected building loss.