Orleans County’s tension is a published county value versus a separate falling repeat-sale signal. At Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation, median home value was $300,264. FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI fell 2.59%; it is an appreciation index, not a home value, and its vintage and method cannot be combined with Zillow into one rate. Investors using appreciation or resale assumptions should investigate the divergence; buyers needing stable price confirmation should be cautious.
Published median asking market rent is $1,474 per month and the reported gross yield is 5.89% before costs, making a price-to-rent screen possible. HUD two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, so it should neither replace market rent nor be used to recalculate yield. The effective property-tax rate is 1.65%, which adds a known carrying-cost claim against the gross yield. Assessment and actual tax-bill evidence are needed to locate that burden.
Realtor.com’s MLS listing evidence shows median asking prices down 6.93%, alongside more visible listings; these are seller asks and supply, not closed sales or proof of buyer demand. The 44-day median marketing time and price-reduction activity describe marketing conditions, not buyer demand by themselves. QCEW’s 2025 annual workplace data show covered employment down 2.06%; it is neither resident employment nor unemployment. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net tax-return migration was 25 households, but incoming movers’ average income was $1,490 below outgoing; that pairing does not establish durable renter demand. Investor purchase mortgages were 7.04% of 284 purchases, a limited indicator of buyer competition rather than all buyer types.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.13%. That is a county-level model, not an insurance quote or parcel loss estimate; flood zone, elevation, drainage and coverage can alter exposure. The record provides no vacancy trend, lease renewals, property-level operating expenses, sales comps, flood-insurance terms, or financing evidence. Those gaps prevent testing whether gross yield becomes durable net cash flow or whether listing conditions translate into an executable exit price.