Baldwin County’s underwriting tension is a positive measured rent-to-price relationship against weaker listing-market evidence and inland-flood exposure. Investors seeking current income should investigate lease durability and property-specific flood costs; buyers relying on appreciation or rapid resale should be cautious. In Zillow’s 2026-06 county series, the median home value was $238,331 and median asking rent was $1,280 per month, producing the published 6.44% gross yield before expenses. Zillow reports both increased year over year.
That yield is not net income: the effective property-tax rate is 0.70%, and median annual tax is $1,276. HUD’s two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate; it cannot replace market rent or establish yield. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI for 2025 declined 2.02%, challenging Zillow’s positive value direction, but it is an index, not a home value; its period and method differ from Zillow’s.
Realtor.com’s MLS listing-market evidence adds caution: active listings rose 30.5%, median marketing time was 79 days, and 19.36% of listings carried price reductions. Those are visible supply, seller-concession, and marketing-time measures—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. QCEW shows covered workplace employment and wages rose; Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole county economy. Net migration was 19 tax-return households, while inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $5,211. Investor purchase mortgages represented 19.92% of the 266 recorded purchases, adding competition but not demonstrating investor pricing power.
The modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.11% of building value, consistent with inland flood as the dominant hazard; it is modeled exposure, not a property-specific loss forecast. Unit-level rent comparables, vacancy, insurance and repair costs, flood-zone and loss history, financing terms, and closed-sale comparables are not published in this record. Their absence prevents net-yield, debt-service, property-level hazard-cost, and exit-price conclusions; underwriting should verify them for the target submarket.