Bergen County, NJ

Bergen County has a valuation-versus-income tension. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value is $791,116, up 5.8%, while FHFA’s separate 2025 repeat-transaction index is up 6.79%; the direction agrees, but these are different vintages and methods, and FHFA’s 52.03% five-year change is an index change, not a home value or annualized return. That supports investigating the apparent price strength, not treating it as a realized return. Yield-focused buyers and anyone depending on resale liquidity should be cautious because the record shows net outmigration and only a gross, pre-cost return measure.

Measured market rent is positive relative to HUD’s standard, but economics remain thin after carrying costs. Median asking rent is $2,916 per month, while supplied gross yield is 4.42% before costs. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $2,324, and market rent is 125.5% of it; FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate. Effective property-tax rate is 1.61%. Insurance, repairs, vacancy, utilities, financing, property-level assessment, and other operating costs are not published, so net yield, debt-service coverage, and cash flow cannot be underwritten from this record.

MLS evidence is mixed rather than a demand verdict. Active listings rose 17.92%, and 9.36% were price-reduced; these are visible supply and seller concessions, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return flows show net migration of -2,008 households, yet inbound average AGI exceeded outbound by $1,905, a combination that warrants segment-level tenant and buyer testing rather than a simple demand label. Investor participation was 9.96%—680 purchases out of 6,827 total—indicating participation without evidence that investors set the market.

Risk limits are material. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, but the modeled annual building-value loss is a county-level screen; it does not establish parcel exposure, elevation, flood-zone status, insurance terms, or deductibles. QCEW is annual covered employment at county workplaces, not resident employment or unemployment: employment edged down while average weekly wage rose, and Trade, transportation, and utilities is only the largest disclosed private supersector. Missing unit mix, occupancy, lease rolls, operating expenses, financing, closed-sale comps, and property-level flood evidence prevent conclusions about stabilized NOI, debt coverage, liquidity, or asset-specific climate loss; next checks should obtain them before relying on the county signals.