Box Elder County presents a current-income versus carry-cost tension: the Zillow county observation labeled 2026-06 shows a $456,712 median home value against $1,251 monthly median asking rent and a supplied 3.29% gross yield before costs. Investors dependent on near-term cash flow should be cautious; investigators should test whether a specific asset can clear its tax, insurance, financing, vacancy, and repair load. The 0.49% effective property-tax rate is a known carrying burden, but county-level yield is not net operating performance.
Pricing signals are aligned only directionally, not as one time series. Within that Zillow observation, home-value measure rose 1.46% year over year while asking rent rose 3.39%. FHFA’s separately labeled 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 1.47% annually and 56.2% cumulatively over five years; it is an appreciation index, not a dollar home value, so its growth cannot be averaged with Zillow’s. Measured asking rent is 11.9% above HUD’s two-bedroom FMR, which remains a payment standard rather than market rent or a yield substitute.
Demand evidence is mixed rather than conclusive. QCEW reports annual covered workplace employment growth and names Manufacturing as the largest disclosed private supersector; these are workplace measures, not resident employment or the whole economy. A net inflow of 241 tax-return households coincided with an incoming-versus-outgoing average AGI gap of $9,572, a favorable mover-composition signal but not proof of tenant demand. Realtor.com’s MLS metrics show visible listings, price reductions, and marketing time—asking-market evidence, not closed-sale pricing or buyer demand alone. Non-occupant purchase mortgages were 1.7% of 883 purchases, limiting evidence of investor competition.
Earthquake is the named dominant hazard, while modeled annual climate loss is 0.19% of building value; that combination calls for parcel-specific seismic, insurance, and replacement-cost review rather than a countywide dollar-loss assumption. Published evidence does not provide insurance premiums or deductibles, property condition, vacancy, operating expenses, debt terms, unit-level rents, or closed-sale comparables. Those gaps prevent a net-yield, debt-coverage, replacement-cost, and executable acquisition-value conclusion; county measures cannot resolve a particular building’s exposure or leasing result.