Carson City presents a yield-versus-entry-price tension: investors able to verify lease income and operating costs should investigate, while buyers requiring clear resale momentum or hazard-insensitive carrying costs should be cautious. Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation reports a $496,022 median home value, $1,811 monthly median asking rent, and 4.38% gross yield before costs. Separately, FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 0.15% in 2025 and 38.29% cumulatively over five years. It is not a home value; its method and vintage cannot be merged with Zillow into one appreciation rate.
The market asking rent exceeds the $1,546 HUD two-bedroom FMR, but FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot replace market rent or yield. The 0.41% effective property-tax rate is a recurring carrying-cost input, not a parcel quote. Modeled climate loss is 0.26% of building value per year and earthquake is the dominant hazard. Verify insurance, deductible, seismic condition, and replacement-cost inputs before comparing stated yields.
Realtor.com’s MLS evidence shows median listing price up 8.62%, contracting visible supply, and 11.71% of listings reduced; asks, active listings, and reductions do not establish closed-sale pricing or buyer demand. Migration was a net 22 tax-return households, while incoming movers’ average AGI exceeded outgoing movers’ by $5,723. That small flow does not establish tenant demand. Investor mortgages were 6.18% of 647 purchases, limited measured non-owner participation rather than a dominant buyer cohort. QCEW is annual covered employment at county workplaces, not resident employment, unemployment, or a forecast.
Decisive evidence is not published: property-type rent distribution, vacancy, expense and insurance quotes, seismic retrofit records, debt terms, and closed-sale comparables. Those gaps prevent underwriting net yield, debt-service coverage, or exit value. Confirm lease comparables, parcel tax assessment, hazard and insurance terms, and the relevant submarket; county migration and MLS measures cannot identify a tenant cohort.