Chemung County presents a rent-supported gross yield against shrinking covered employment, net out-migration and flood/tax exposure. Investors requiring durable tenant-income support should investigate; buyers relying on resale or thin expense cushions should be cautious. Neighborhood performance, financing, insurance, vacancy, repairs and operating expenses are not published, preventing net-yield and debt-service coverage conclusions.
Zillow’s county snapshot reports a $164,318 median home value and $1,155 monthly median asking rent, with reported gross yield of 8.43% before costs. Market rent—not HUD Fair Market Rent—supports this calculation. HUD FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute. A 2.45% effective property-tax rate and $3,451 median annual tax frame carrying costs; absent insurance and expense data prevent cash-flow underwriting.
FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI gained 3.86%, while Zillow’s June 2026 value metric also reports a year-over-year increase. The FHFA index is not a dollar value and has a different vintage and method; do not average the measures. Realtor.com’s June 2026 MLS listing-market evidence shows 196 active listings and 11.67% price reductions—visible supply and seller concessions, not sale prices or proof of buyer demand. The 2025 QCEW annual county-workplace series has covered employment down 0.75%; its average weekly wage applies to covered workers, while Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Migration was net negative and departing movers reported higher average income. Investor purchase mortgages accounted for 8.52% of 763 purchases, indicating some competition but not pricing power.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, while modeled annual building-value loss is 0.10%: a county screen, not a parcel insurance quote or dollar-loss forecast. The thesis could fail if parcel flood exposure and insurance differ, unreported expenses erase gross yield, or out-migration and job contraction reduce tenant depth. Next checks are parcel flood history and insurance, lease-level rent comps and vacancy, and buyer/tenant income verification.