Dauphin County, PA

Dauphin County presents a yield-versus-risk screening case: income-focused investors should investigate individual assets, while buyers unable to price flood and operating exposure should be cautious. In Zillow’s June 2026 county reading, the $283,640 median home value and $1,404 monthly median asking rent produce a 5.94% gross yield before costs. The separate FHFA annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 5.22%; it reports positive repeat-sale price movement but is an index, not a home value, and cannot be combined with Zillow into one appreciation rate.

That yield is based on measured market asking rent, not HUD’s two-bedroom FMR: market rent is 94% of the FMR, which is a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate. The $3,198 median annual property tax and 1.35% effective tax rate matter to carrying-cost screening, but neither can be directly netted against county median yield without property-specific assessment, insurance, financing, repairs, vacancy, and utility data. The record supports gross-rent comparison, not an operating-return or debt-coverage conclusion.

MLS conditions call for deliberate offer assumptions. Realtor.com reports 435 active listings and a 14.35% price-reduced share; listing prices fell and marketing time lengthened. These are asking-price, supply, and concession evidence—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Negative net migration paired with higher average income among outbound movers is a composition concern, not a demand forecast. QCEW shows nearly flat annual covered workplace employment; Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Investor mortgages were 410 of 3,059 purchases, or 13.4%, a meaningful buyer cohort but no evidence of bidding behavior or rent strategy.

Inland flood is the dominant hazard; modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.13%. Parcel flood zone, elevation, prior losses, drainage, insurance terms, and replacement cost are not published, preventing a site-level hazard-cost test. No vacancy, lease-comp, condition, expense, or financing data are supplied, so the record cannot establish net operating income, debt coverage, or the durability of the gross yield.