Erie County presents a spread-versus-depth tension: Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $228,459 and median asking rent was $1,100 per month, producing the stated 5.78% annual gross yield before costs. Separate MLS listing-market and migration evidence makes this a diligence case for operators who can verify block-level rent, tax and flood-insurance exposure; yield-first buyers should be cautious about assuming county averages establish exit or leasing depth.
Zillow’s county value was up 5.99% year over year, while the 2025 FHFA repeat-transaction HPI increased 8.78% annually. FHFA is an index rather than a dollar home value; its different vintage and method support the direction but cannot be averaged with Zillow into one appreciation rate. The rent is measured market asking rent, whereas HUD Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not a rent estimate and not a basis for inferred yield. Erie’s 1.60% effective property-tax rate adds carrying-cost pressure; parcel assessments, insurance and operating costs are not published.
In Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS data, median listing prices were down 2.54% year over year and median marketing time was 29 days. These are active-listing asking-price and exposure measures, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand; the published price-reduction share signals seller concessions but does not establish transaction outcomes. Net migration was a loss of 715 tax-return households, and average AGI of arrivals was $2,574 below departures, a demand-depth flag rather than proof of tenant behavior. Non-occupants accounted for 8.67% of 2,100 purchase mortgages. Annual QCEW measures covered jobs at county workplaces—not resident employment—and identifies education and health services as the largest disclosed private supersector.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with modeled annual expected building-value loss of 0.09%; that county-level ratio cannot assign risk to an address. Missing flood-zone, elevation and insurance-quote evidence prevents property-level hazard underwriting. Missing condition, lease terms, vacancy, utilities, repairs, management costs and closed-sale comparables prevents a net-cash-flow, cap-rate or resale-price conclusion. The next check is parcel-specific rather than a county forecast.