For Franklin County, the underwriting tension is a modest gross yield and hazard exposure against a supportive rent-and-employment backdrop. The thesis is selective: asking rent is growing faster than Zillow's county home-value measure, while covered employment rises. That supports demand review, not a conclusion about tenant quality or future appreciation. A cautious underwriter should test property-level flood conditions, operating costs, and the fit between county medians and the asset. Realtor.com is listing-market evidence, not proof of closed-sale demand.
At Zillow's observation labeled 2026-06, median home value is $294,958, up 2.93%, versus median asking rent of $1,328 per month, up 4.82%. The supplied gross yield is 5.4% before taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, management, financing, or capital costs, so it is not a net return. The $1,379 HUD two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not market rent, and should not be substituted. Property tax adds a 1.10% effective rate. Separately, FHFA's 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 4.02% and gained 49.59% over five years. Those are index movements, not home values, and must not be averaged with Zillow.
Demand evidence is constructive but limited. Annual QCEW covered employment grew 1.99%; this is workplace employment, not resident employment, unemployment, or the metro series. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Tax-return migration was net positive, while the inbound-outbound average-income gap was $440, so volume and purchasing power need separate testing. Realtor.com shows more visible supply, shorter marketing time, and price reductions; these can affect negotiation but do not prove absorption. Investor mortgages were 8.71% of 1,676 total purchases, showing participation without evidence of dominance.
The dominant modeled hazard is inland flood. Its annual expected building-value loss ratio is 0.10%, but that is not an insurance quote or property-level loss estimate. Next checks are flood-zone and elevation, drainage, prior claims, coverage terms, deductibles, and replacement-cost assumptions. The record does not publish property-level insurance, vacancy, repairs, capital expenditure, financing, or lease evidence. Without those inputs, the gross screen cannot become NOI, DSCR, or a net yield; without closed-sale comps, its price signals cannot be tied to the target asset.