Garrard County presents a basis-versus-income tension. The Zillow county observation for 2026-06 places median home value at $254,692, down 1.42% year over year, while the separate FHFA annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 3% and is up 56.79% cumulatively over five years. These are different methods and vintages, not a blended appreciation measure. Buyers relying on near-term resale evidence should verify closed-sale comparables, while income-focused buyers should be cautious because market rent is not published.
Housing economics cannot support a gross-yield calculation because median asking market rent is absent. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $900 per month, but it is a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate and cannot substitute for rent. The effective property-tax rate is 0.69%, a county-level carrying-cost input rather than a parcel-specific tax bill. Without market rent, operating costs, insurance, vacancy, repairs, and financing terms, the record cannot test whether property income covers ownership costs.
Tax-return households show 566 movers entered and 536 left; incoming movers’ average AGI exceeded outgoing movers’ by $15,560. That composition warrants submarket affordability checks but does not establish tenant demand. Investor purchases were 13 of 215 total purchases, or 6.05%; the share measures purchase mortgages to non-occupants, not the full buyer mix. No Realtor.com listing price, active-listing, days-on-market, or price-reduction figures are supplied, so visible supply, seller concessions, and marketing time cannot be assessed.
The 2025 QCEW record counted 2,689 annual average covered jobs at county workplaces, down 2.54%, with an average weekly covered wage of $977. This is not resident employment or a forecast; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual building-value loss is 0.15%. Obtain parcel flood-zone, elevation, insurance, condition, market-rent, operating-cost, and closed-sale evidence before judging cash flow or exit value.