Gonzales County presents a price-repricing-versus-demand-support tension. Underwriters examining a specific acquisition should remain cautious until property-level rent and flood costs are documented. Zillow’s county median home value was $264,609 at its 2026-06 observation, down 8.23% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI, which is not a home-value estimate, also fell 4.68% annually after a 43.93% cumulative five-year rise. The vintages and methods differ, so these observations support recent weakness but cannot be averaged into one appreciation rate.
Housing economics cannot yet be converted into a yield case. No median asking market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s monthly $973 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot fill the rent gap. The effective property-tax rate is 1.31%; a target parcel’s assessed value and tax bill are not published. Thus price, rent coverage, and tax burden remain unreconciled at the asset level.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing market showed 72 active listings, a 91-day median marketing time, 15.65% with reductions, and a 17.36% pending-to-active ratio. These are visible supply, asking-market timing, seller-concession, and listing-status evidence—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand alone. QCEW’s 2025 annual measure reports county workplace covered employment rising; its largest disclosed private supersector is Trade, transportation, and utilities, not the whole economy. Tax-return migration was negative, even as inbound movers had higher average AGI than outbound movers. Investor purchase mortgages were a minority of total purchase mortgages, limiting evidence of broad investor competition.
Inland flood is the designated dominant hazard. The modeled expected annual building-value loss ratio is 0.15%, but this county-level model is not a parcel loss estimate and should be read with flood-zone, elevation, drainage, deductible, and insurance-quote evidence. Actual closed-sale comps, property condition, parcel tax assessment, market-rent history, lease-up, and insurance costs are not published in this record. Their absence prevents a supported conclusion on deal-level value, gross yield, operating burden, flood exposure, or tenant demand.