Grafton County presents a gross-yield-versus-carrying-cost tension: Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $439,869, while published median asking rent was $2,352 per month and supplied gross yield was 6.42% before costs. This merits investigation by operators who can test asset-level expenses and flood exposure; buyers dependent on headline price momentum or minimal reserves should be cautious. The value-and-rent pairing is an initial screen, not a property-level cash-flow conclusion.
The effective property-tax rate of 1.72% and median annual tax of $5,925 need to be tested against a particular home’s rent and tax bill. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,909 is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate or revenue proxy, so it cannot replace the published market-rent measure in yield work. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 6.77%; it supports positive price direction but is neither a dollar home value nor the same vintage or method as Zillow’s 2026-06 observation.
Demand and buyer evidence is mixed. Realtor.com MLS evidence shows active listings increased 25.03%, which measures visible supply rather than closed-sale activity or buyer demand. Net tax-return migration was 118 households, while inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $18,895. Investor activity was 99 of 865 purchases, or 11.45%, identifying a potential buyer-competition segment without showing tenure, price tier, or cash usage.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.22% of building value; this is a model ratio, not a property insurance quote or realized loss. Critical evidence not published in this record includes parcel flood-zone status, insurance quotes, vacancy, utilities, repairs, debt terms, unit-specific rent comparables, and closed-sale data. Without it, net yield, ability to carry costs, resale liquidity, and parcel-level hazard exposure cannot be concluded.