Grant County presents a measured-yield-versus-durability tension. The 4.89% gross yield, based on a $362,876 median Zillow home value and $1,479 monthly median asking rent, is a screening positive before costs, but rent is declining while price is edging upward. Zillow’s county observation and FHFA’s annual repeat-transaction HPI are distinct vintages; both show 0.67% annual appreciation, which supports direction only—not a shared period or dollar value. Buyers should investigate rent durability and property-level costs rather than treat the headline yield as cash flow.
Market rent is published, and it is 120% of HUD’s $1,232 two-bedroom FMR. That does not validate rent: FMR is a HUD payment standard, while the county rent is a median asking-rent measure. The 0.78% effective property-tax rate and $2,339 median annual tax add a carrying burden, but insurance, repairs, vacancy, management, utilities, and financing are not supplied. Accordingly, the record supports gross-yield screening, not net yield or debt-service coverage.
Demand evidence is mixed. Realtor.com’s MLS record shows active listings increasing 10.10%, median marketing time at 65 days, up 15.04%, and 16.27% of listings carrying price reductions. These are visible-supply, marketing-time, and seller-concession signals—not closed-sale prices or proof of demand. QCEW shows covered workplace jobs declining while covered-worker average weekly wages rose; Natural resources and mining is the largest disclosed private supersector, so these measures do not describe resident employment or the whole economy. Net migration was 91 households, with a $391 average-income gap between incoming and outgoing movers. Investors represented 76 of 1,061 purchase mortgages, or 7.16%, so competition exists but is not dominant.
The dominant hazard is inland flood, while the modeled climate loss ratio is 0.10% of building value expected lost per year. That county-level model is not an insurance quote or parcel-level loss estimate. Before proceeding, obtain the subject’s flood zone, elevation, drainage history, insurance terms, actual tax bill, operating statements, lease history, and closed-sale comparables. Missing property-level hazard, expense, occupancy, and sale evidence prevents defensible conclusions on net return, rent stability, or exit price; employment and industry concentration warrant tenant and employer review.