Greene County’s decision tension is whether a modestly rising value base can support income after local property taxes and flood exposure. At Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation, median home value was $306,546, up 3.4%, while median asking rent was $1,599 per month; the published gross yield was 6.26% before costs. This is a diligence case for buyers who can verify unit economics, not an appreciation-only case: Zillow’s value and rent are market measures, not closed-sale comparables or guaranteed leases.
Carrying costs are the principal test. The effective property-tax rate was 1.61%, so gross yield cannot establish net operating income, debt coverage or cash flow without insurance, repairs, vacancy and financing. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard rather than asking rent; it must not be used to calculate market yield. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 3.75% in 2025, directionally consistent with Zillow’s later county observation, but it is an index rather than a home value and the periods and methods should not be combined.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS evidence gives a mixed competition read: visible inventory expanded and 22.23% of listings carried price reductions. These are active-supply and seller-concession indicators, not closed-sale prices or standalone proof of buyer demand. Net tax-return migration was positive by 124 households, but arriving movers’ average income was $4,634 below departing movers’, tempering what the positive count establishes about purchasing power. Investor purchases were 7.39% of 2,232 total purchases, indicating some buyer competition but not a dominant share.
Risk remains an asset-level constraint. The modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.08% of building value, and inland flood is the dominant hazard; neither county aggregate identifies a parcel’s flood exposure, premium or insurability. QCEW’s 2025 annual covered-employment evidence measures workplaces in the county, not resident employment or a forecast, and professional and business services is only the largest disclosed private supersector. Missing closed-sale comps, achieved rents, vacancy, operating expenses, flood-insurance quotes and parcel tax assessments prevent a net-yield or purchase-price conclusion.