Grundy County presents a price-support-versus-income-depth tension: county value indicators rose, yet covered employment and net tax-return migration declined while listings took longer to market. Investors should investigate durable rental demand and flood-specific carrying costs before underwriting; buyers relying on rapid resale or an assumed rent level should be cautious. County measures identify screening issues, not property-level performance.
In Zillow’s county observation for 2026-06, median home value was $223,717, up 3.1% year over year. Separately, FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI increased 1.87% over the year and 44.16% over five years; this confirms positive direction but is neither a home value nor the same observation period. Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent. The 1.14% effective property-tax rate makes carrying-cost verification material.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS snapshot shows median days on market of 78, with 26.41% of listings carrying price cuts. These are visible supply and seller-concession signals, not closed sales or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was negative by 39 households, although inbound mover AGI exceeded outbound mover AGI by $6,149. Annual 2025 QCEW covered county-workplace employment fell 1.57%; this is not resident employment or a forecast. Investors accounted for 5.62% of 178 purchases, indicating measured non-owner participation rather than rent demand.
Inland flood is the named dominant hazard, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.12% of building value; it is modeled exposure, not a property-specific loss estimate. The record does not publish vacancy, unit mix, insurance quotes, flood-zone status, sale comps, repair needs, or debt terms. Those gaps prevent debt-service, insurance, and resale underwriting conclusions. Next checks are property-level flood and insurance records, signed lease and comparable-rent evidence, tax bills, and recent closed sales; county-level listings and workplace data cannot substitute.