Guernsey County’s decision tension is a published rent-to-price screen that looks usable before expenses, against appreciation and listing signals that need property-level confirmation. In Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation, median home value was $166,180 and median asking rent was $800 monthly. This warrants investigation where condition, lease rent and flood exposure can be verified; buyers relying on headline yield should be cautious.
HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $973 per month exceeds the asking rent, but it is a payment standard, not a market-rent estimate. The published 5.78% gross yield uses market rent rather than FMR and excludes operating costs. The effective property-tax rate is 1.01%, a carrying-cost input, although property-specific tax bills and insurance are not published. Zillow’s price change was 3.77% year over year; FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 7.83% in annual 2025. Both point upward, but they use different vintages and methods; FHFA is not a home value and the rates should not be averaged.
QCEW annual data cover jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment: employment and average weekly wage both increased, while Education and health services was the largest disclosed private supersector. Tax-return migration was net positive, and in-movers reported higher average income than out-movers, but neither establishes tenant demand. The record counts 22 investor purchases among 323 total purchases, a 6.81% share; this is a non-occupant purchase measure, not all buyer competition. Realtor.com’s matching-labeled MLS observation showed 83 active listings, a year-over-year decline, alongside 51 median days on market and a 9.92% price-reduced share. These are visible asking-market supply, marketing-time and seller-concession measures, not closed-sale prices or proof of demand.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled climate loss equals 0.09% of building value per year; it is a county-level modeled loss ratio, not site-specific damage or an insurance quote. The record does not publish parcel flood-zone or elevation data, insurance, vacancy, repairs, capital needs, comparable rents, lease terms or transaction prices. Those absences prevent a net-cash-flow, insurability, exit-price or property-specific hazard conclusion.