Holmes County’s tension is a rising Zillow value against a declining FHFA transaction index; value-sensitive buyers and lenders should investigate rather than treat either as clear valuation evidence. Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value is $374,029, up 6.51% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI fell 2.73%, though its supplied five-year change is 48.34%. They are different methods and vintages, not one interval or a basis for averaging; recent sale comparables and condition review are needed.
Income underwriting is the central gap: market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $973 per month, a payment standard rather than asking rent, and cannot stand in for it. The 1.08% effective property-tax rate and $2,888 median annual tax identify carrying-cost inputs, but neither establishes a specific asset’s tax bill. Verified market rents and property tax bills are needed before assessing coverage.
The annual QCEW series reports 21,968 covered jobs located at county workplaces, up 2.02%, with a $1,086 average weekly covered-worker wage. Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector, not a description of the entire economy. Tax-return household migration is negative by 170, and incoming movers’ average income is $2,250 below that of outgoing movers; this does not independently establish tenant demand. Investors accounted for 10 of 127 purchases, or 7.87%, an observed non-owner-occupant presence that does not measure cash buyers or total buyer competition.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, while modeled climate loss equals 0.08% of building value per year; it is a modeled ratio, not a dollar loss or property-specific insurance quote. Realtor.com MLS listing price, active inventory, days on market, and price-reduction data are not published, preventing a read on visible asking supply, marketing time, or seller concessions. Missing closed-sale, property-condition, insurance, and operating-cost evidence also prevents valuation and net-cash-flow conclusions.