Counties / Oregon / Jefferson County

Jefferson County, OR

FIPS 41031 · population 25,203 · part of Bend, OR

$433k
Zillow home value · 2026-06
The numbers

What this county costs and earns

Everything here joins on the county FIPS code, so each figure comes from the agency that publishes it with no name matching in between.

Zillow home value
$433k
▲ 0.8% year over year
Zillow ZHVI · direct
Median asking rent
$1,493
n/a year over year
Zillow ZORI · direct
Gross yield
4.1%
annual rent ÷ price, before costs
derived: rent × 12 ÷ price ✓
HUD 2-bed standard
$1,229
market rent is 1.22x the standard
HUD Fair Market Rent · direct
Independent price check

Do two methods point the same way?

Zillow estimates a current home value. FHFA tracks repeat mortgage transactions. Their growth rates should be read side by side, not averaged.

Both annual signals move in the same direction
FHFA five-year cumulative+51.4%not annualized · through 2025
0%ZILLOW ZHVI2026-06+0.8%FHFA HPI2025+4.5%
Annual changes use different methods and may use different periods. The comparison checks direction and magnitude; it does not create a blended estimate. Zillow county ZHVI pulled 2026-07-26; FHFA annual county HPI pulled 2026-07-28.
Owner-reported value$374k
Surveyed gross rent$941
Rent burden 30%+43.8%
Median year built1991
Housing composition

Who occupies the stock—and what it is

ACS 2024 5-year
16.9%vacant
10,602estimated housing units
Occupied tenure28.0% renter
owner 72.0%renter 28.0%
Structure mix74.6% single-family
Single-family 74.6%20+ units 0.6%Mobile home 16.4%Other 8.3%
ACS estimates describe the standing housing stock and occupied tenure. They do not measure current listings, transaction prices or asking rents.

Survey source: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30. These values describe different housing universes and are not combined into gross yield.

Annual average covered jobs7,079▲ 0.7% from the prior annual release
Covered establishments656annual average reporting locations
Average weekly wage$1,126▲ 4.4% from the prior annual release
Largest private supersectorManufacturing24.0% of disclosed private covered jobs
Local labor base

Jobs, pay and private-sector concentration

2025
0%COVERED JOBS+0.7%WEEKLY WAGE+4.4%Manufacturing24.0%
Annual QCEW counts cover jobs located at reporting establishments. The industry share uses disclosed private covered employment; it is not a resident-employment measure or a forecast.

Workplace source: BLS QCEW — county employment and wages · annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 · pulled 2026-07-31. QCEW counts covered jobs located in the county, not employed residents or the metro score’s CES/LAUS series.

County brief

What the local evidence says

01Decision frame

Jefferson County poses a valuation-versus-income tension: Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $433,181, with 0.84% year-over-year growth. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI increased 4.55% in 2025. Both indicate an upward direction, but they use different observation periods and methods; the FHFA measure is an index, not a home value, so the rates cannot be blended. Yield-focused buyers should be cautious about purchase basis and investigate whether a specific asset’s rent and expenses support it.

02Housing economics

Measured county median asking rent is $1,493 per month, and the published 4.14% gross yield reflects annual market rent before costs. HUD’s $1,229 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot replace market rent in yield analysis. The 0.69% effective property-tax rate and $2,591 median annual tax add carrying-cost evidence, but neither establishes a tax bill for the Zillow median-value home.

03Demand & competition

Migration shows a net inflow of 68 tax-return households, with average income among in-movers $4,082 above out-movers. That is a modest positive demand indicator, not proof of durable renter or buyer demand. The 2025 QCEW series measures annual covered jobs at county workplaces rather than resident employment and identifies Manufacturing as the largest disclosed private supersector. Investor mortgages represented 4.44% of 270 purchase mortgages, limiting evidence of investor-led competition. The record supplies no Realtor.com listing price, active-listing, days-on-market, or price-reduction metrics, so visible MLS supply, marketing time, and seller concessions cannot be assessed.

04Risk & next checks

Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the county-level modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.16% of building value per year. It is not a property-specific loss estimate; flood-zone status, insurance pricing, mitigation needs, and replacement cost require asset-level review. Missing operating costs, vacancy, condition, capital needs, financing terms, closed-sale comparables, and lease-level rent evidence prevent a net-yield, cash-flow, or exit-liquidity conclusion.

Cities & communities

Where people live within Jefferson County

Census-recognized incorporated places and CDPs that intersect this county. The list does not pretend to include every neighborhood or informal community.

Population scale

Largest Census places

ACS 2024 5-year
Madras city7.7KCrooked River Ranch CDP*5.2KWarm Springs CDP2.5KCulver city2.3KMetolius city1.1KCamp Sherman CDP298
Bars use total place population, not a county-share estimate. An asterisk marks a place that crosses a county line.
Official directory

6 Census places

Population
  1. 01
    Madras cityIncorporated place
    7,676
  2. 02
    Crooked River Ranch CDPCensus-designated place · spans 2 counties
    5,160
  3. 03
    Warm Springs CDPCensus-designated place
    2,480
  4. 04
    Culver cityIncorporated place
    2,254
  5. 05
    Metolius cityIncorporated place
    1,137
  6. 06
    Camp Sherman CDPCensus-designated place
    298

Population is the total place-wide ACS estimate, not an allocated county share. A place crossing a county line is labelled explicitly. Source: Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30.

Risk, demand and competition

The three things a price does not tell you

01
Risk & carrying costFEMA NRI + Census ACS
Dominant hazardinland flooding

0.158% of building value expected lost per year

Effective property tax0.69%

$2,591 median annual bill

02
DemandIRS SOI household flows
Net migration+68

731 in · 663 out

Arriving vs leaving income+$4,082

$61,394 arriving · $57,312 leaving

03
CompetitionHMDA financed purchases
Purchases by investors4.4%

12 of 270 mortgages

investorother financed
Same metro

The other counties in Bend, OR

A metro is an average of these. Which side of a county line a property sits on can change the tax bill, the hazard profile and the tenant pool.

CountyPopulationPriceRentYieldHazard
Jefferson County25,203$433k$1,4934.1%inland flooding
Deschutes County206,334$672k$2,2053.9%inland flooding
Crook County26,277$482k$1,6494.1%inland flooding
Bear case

What can break the county thesis

  1. Property-specific flood exposure, insurance, and mitigation costs may exceed the county-level modeled risk.
  2. Missing vacancy, operating-cost, condition, capital-expenditure, and financing data may materially change gross-to-net performance.
  3. Absent MLS listing metrics and closed-sale comparables leave liquidity and achievable purchase basis unresolved.
Underwriting questions

Before pricing a property

Is the reported rent market rent or HUD Fair Market Rent?

It is measured median asking market rent; HUD Fair Market Rent is separately reported as a payment standard.

Can net yield be determined from this record?

No. The record lacks operating costs, vacancy, condition, capital needs, financing terms, and property-specific tax and insurance data.

What does the QCEW employment evidence represent?

It represents annual covered employment at workplaces located in the county, not resident employment or an unemployment measure.