States / Oregon
State rental intelligence

Oregon rental market data

A source-traced view across 17 metro markets and 36 counties. State figures below are labelled medians and totals—not a made-up statewide investment score.

17/17 metros scored36/36 counties with FEMA risk13 sources used in this analysis
Median scored metro40.0out of 100 · 17 measured metros
Oregon identity diorama showing regional landscape, cities, housing, and infrastructure
Median metro home value$414kmedian across published metro values
Median metro rent$1,627monthly · published metro values
Median gross yield4.8%annual rent ÷ price · before costs
Median job trend▲ 0.1%trailing 12-month metro employment
State research brief

Asking rents rose faster than home values across measured Oregon metros even as jobs were nearly flat and migration slightly negative, making local demand validation the central screen.

Updated 2026-07-31 · evidence current to the releases listed below.

Across 17 measured metros, median asking-rent growth was 3.0% while median home-value growth was 0.4%. Subtracting the value-growth median from the rent-growth median gives a 2.6 percentage-point spread. That improves the top-line rent-to-price relationship, but the measured median gross yield was still only 4.8% before vacancy, maintenance, insurance, taxes, management and financing.

Demand evidence does not fully confirm the rent signal. Median metro job growth was 0.05%, and movement across all 36 counties produced 127,721 arrivals and 127,818 departures, a net loss of 97. The counter-signal is that mover AGI inflow exceeded outflow by $181,862 and several highlighted metros had positive job growth. Screening therefore needs to be local rather than statewide. Oregon also has material coverage gaps: county rent data cover 24 of 36 counties, while county listing measures cover 25.

01

Median metro rent growth of 3.0% versus 0.4% home-value growth → measured rent-to-price momentum improved, but the result is a distribution rather than a statewide property assumption.

02

Near-flat median job growth and net migration of -97 → rent growth requires local demand verification rather than reliance on broad expansion.

03

Median price drops of 31.0%, 3.8 months of supply and 36 days on market → acquisition negotiations may have room, while resale timing should remain market-specific.

04

Median gross yield of 4.8% and median renter burden of 50.5% → operating costs and tenant affordability can erase the apparent benefit of faster rent growth.

05

County hazard-loss and effective-tax rates vary materially → parcel insurance, hazard and tax checks are necessary before comparing net returns.

01
Price and rent momentum

Rent growth has separated from restrained home-value growth

The separation is broad but uneven. Across 17 metros, rent growth ran from 0.2% at the 10th percentile to 5.5% at the 90th, while home-value growth ranged from -1.3% to 2.9%. These are distributions across measured metros, not rates that apply to every Oregon locality.

Coos Bay shows the sharpest highlighted divergence: asking rent rose 9.8% while home value fell 2.0%, with a 5.3% gross yield. La Grande is a useful counterexample because rent and value moved together, rising 6.9% and 5.7%, respectively. The spread can improve acquisition arithmetic, but it does not establish occupancy, collections or sustainable rent growth.

Evidence: Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

02
Employment and household movement

Demand confirmation is mixed rather than broadly expansionary

Median job growth across 17 metros was 0.05%, with the measured range running from -1.3% at the 10th percentile to 1.1% at the 90th. Across all 36 counties, arrivals and departures were nearly balanced, but departures exceeded arrivals by 97, equal to -0.023 per 1,000 residents. Mover AGI provided a modest counter-signal, with inflow exceeding outflow by $181,862.

Positive employment pockets remain visible: Salem recorded 1.4% job growth, The Dalles 1.1% and La Grande 1.0%. Those examples show why the near-flat metro median should not be assigned to every market. A rent-growth screen should be paired with local employment, household formation and leasing evidence rather than treated as proof of statewide demand.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — population · BLS CES — payroll employment · BLS LAUS — resident employment · IRS SOI — county migration and mover income

03
Supply and resale conditions

Resale conditions offer negotiating room but vary sharply by market

Across 17 metros, the median market had 3.8 months of supply, 36 days on market, price drops on 31.0% of listings and a 98.9% sale-to-list ratio. Dispersion was substantial: months of supply ran from 2.9 to 5.6 between the 10th and 90th percentiles, while marketing time ranged from 14.6 to 53.4 days.

Newport was looser than those metro medians, with 6.5 months of supply, 53 days on market and a 96.3% sale-to-list ratio. Bend had 2,540 permitted units, or 9.9 per 1,000 residents, alongside 4.3 months of supply. Permits are not completed homes and do not identify rental tenure, but they belong in a local competition screen. The resale figures support price discipline; they do not guarantee that a specific property can be acquired below asking or resold quickly.

Evidence: Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts

04
Entry cost and affordability

Gross yields remain narrow where tenant affordability is already stretched

Measured metro gross yields had a 4.8% median and a 3.9% to 5.1% 10th-to-90th-percentile range. Median rent equaled 27.9% of median household income, with a measured range of 24.6% to 31.3%, while the median price-to-income ratio was 5.97. Market rent was 109.8% of the HUD two-bedroom standard at the median, ranging from 98.1% to 138.3%.

Among the highlighted examples, Hermiston combined a $316,072 home value, $1,448 monthly rent, 5.5% gross yield and 25.4% rent-to-income ratio. Coos Bay showed a 5.3% gross yield but a higher 30.5% rent-to-income ratio. These figures help compare entry arithmetic and tenant-income pressure, but gross yield is not net return and the HUD standard is not evidence of an achievable contract rent.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — household income · HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard · Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Zillow ZORI — metro market rents

05
Housing stock and tenant conditions

High renter burden coexists with unusually wide vacancy differences

Across 36 counties, the median vacancy rate was 12.0%, but the 10th-to-90th-percentile range extended from 5.1% to 22.8%. At the same time, the median share of renters spending at least 30% of income on rent was 50.5%, with a measured range of 38.3% to 55.9%. High burden indicates tenant pressure, not automatic capacity for further rent increases.

Benton County combined a 5.9% vacancy rate with a 62.7% rent-burden rate and a 43.1% renter share. In contrast, measured vacancy reached 37.9% in Tillamook County, 29.2% in Lincoln County and 23.1% in Clatsop County. ACS vacancy includes units that may not be available as conventional long-term rentals, so those county rates cannot be read as rent-ready inventory without property-level and tenure evidence.

Evidence: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock

06
Physical risk and property tax

County tax and hazard measures can materially change thin deal margins

Inland flood was the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label for 23 counties, earthquake for 9 and wildfire for 4. These counts cover county-level leading labels and do not overlap. They do not establish that every parcel in a labeled county has that exposure.

The median county climate loss ratio was 0.21%, with a 0.13% to 0.38% 10th-to-90th-percentile range. Wheeler County measured 0.44%. Effective property-tax rates had a 0.75% median and a 0.58% to 0.89% range, while median annual tax was $2,587. Gilliam County, Multnomah County and Benton County recorded highlighted tax rates of 1.01%, 0.96% and 0.95%, respectively. These county measures support an initial cost screen, but the packet lacks parcel-level hazard findings, insurance quotes and property-specific tax bills.

Evidence: FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios · Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax

Evidence selected for Oregon

The ranges behind the analysis

Each row keeps its own unit and shows the measured 10th percentile, median and 90th percentile. A single-value row is labelled directly.

Price and rent momentumAre home values and asking rents moving together or separating?
10th pct.median90th pct.Home-value change-1.3%0.4%2.9%Asking-rent change0.2%3.0%5.5%Rent minus price2.6%
Employment and household movementDo jobs, household movement and mover income point in the same direction?
10th pct.median90th pct.Job change-1.3%0.1%1.1%Net migration / 1k-0.0Net household movement-97
Supply and resale conditionsWhat do permits, inventory, marketing time and price cuts say about pressure?
10th pct.median90th pct.Permits / 1k1.62.45.9Months of supply2.9×3.8×5.6×Days on market15 days36 days53 daysListings with cuts26.7%31.0%35.9%
Shape of the state

Distribution before conclusion

A statewide median can hide a wide spread. These SVG charts render at build time and carry no chart library or browser-side data request.

Metro score distribution17 scored metros · median 40.0
10–19720–39840–59160–79080–100
County evidence coverageEvery gap stays visible as missing—not estimated
67%24/36Rent100%36/36Climate100%36/36Migration
Highest measured metro gross yieldsscreening metric only · before expenses and financing
Hermiston5.5%Coos Bay5.3%Medford5.0%Ontario5.0%Newport5.0%Grants Pass4.9%Roseburg4.9%
Metro leaderboard

Markets touching Oregon

Multi-state CBSAs appear in every member state. Score is still a metro score; no value is reweighted into a statewide ranking.

#MetroScorePriceRentYieldJobs
1La Grande, OR69$339k$1,3414.7%▲ 1.0%
2Hermiston, OR54$316k$1,4485.5%▲ 0.9%
3Roseburg, OR52$346k$1,3984.9%▲ 0.3%
4Ontario, OR51$378k$1,5635.0%▲ 0.5%
5Astoria, OR49$523k$1,5603.6%▲ 0.8%
6Coos Bay, OR48$355k$1,5805.3%▼ 0.1%
7Salem, OR45$455k$1,6264.3%▲ 1.4%
8The Dalles, OR44$407k$1,6304.8%▲ 1.1%
9Medford, OR40$442k$1,8415.0%▲ 0.1%
10Klamath Falls, OR38$316k$1,2744.8%▲ 0.1%
11Bend, OR37$672k$2,2053.9%▼ 0.4%
12Eugene, OR32$464k$1,7894.6%▼ 1.3%

Showing the top 12 scored metros of 17. Unscored metros remain discoverable through the national rankings.

Below the metro line

Largest counties in Oregon

County figures join on the five-digit FIPS code. The table uses measured local values and prints “n/a” wherever a publisher has no record.

CountyPopulationPriceRentYieldHazard
Multnomah County, OR801,477$511k$1,6884.0%earthquake
Washington County, OR603,947$569k$1,9114.0%earthquake
Clackamas County, OR423,975$623k$1,8963.6%inland flooding
Lane County, OR384,207$464k$1,7894.6%inland flooding
Marion County, OR349,244$447k$1,5974.3%earthquake
Jackson County, OR222,645$442k$1,8415.0%inland flooding
Deschutes County, OR206,334$672k$2,2053.9%inland flooding
Linn County, OR130,706$414k$1,6394.8%inland flooding
Douglas County, OR112,072$346k$1,3984.9%inland flooding
Yamhill County, OR108,734$512k$2,0034.7%earthquake
Benton County, OR96,303$564k$1,8073.9%earthquake
Polk County, OR89,662$486k$1,7864.4%inland flooding
County yield sample24/36counties have the rent needed to compute yield
Statewide net migration−97IRS tax-return households summed across counties
Median investor share4.9%among counties with HMDA purchase records
Sources used in this analysis

Measured releases, not a global source count

Only sources supporting the selected evidence modules are listed here.

Bear case

What can break the thesis

  1. Metro and county figures use different geographies, measures and coverage; county rents cover 24 of 36 counties and listing data cover 25.
  2. The IRS movement series and current housing indicators do not measure the same period, so their contrast cannot establish a current migration trend.
  3. Gross yield excludes vacancy, concessions, repairs, management, insurance, taxes, capital spending and financing.
  4. ACS vacancy includes units that may not compete in the long-term rental market, making high county vacancy an imperfect supply measure.
  5. FEMA leading-hazard labels and county loss ratios do not establish parcel exposure, insurability or the premium for a specific building.
Investor questions

Before underwriting a property

Are rents clearly outperforming home values?

Across 17 measured metros, yes at the median: asking rents rose 3.0% and home values rose 0.4%, a calculated difference of 2.6 percentage points. Individual metro outcomes still differed.

Does household and employment evidence confirm strong rental demand?

Not broadly. Median metro job growth was 0.05%, and county movement produced a net loss of 97 residents. Positive mover AGI and job growth in Salem, The Dalles and La Grande are counter-signals that require local interpretation.

What do the highlighted entry markets show?

Hermiston had a 5.5% gross yield and 25.4% rent-to-income ratio, while Coos Bay had a 5.3% yield and 30.5% rent-to-income ratio. The higher yield does not include operating or financing costs.

Do current listings indicate an easy resale market?

No single statewide conclusion is supported. The measured metro median was 36 days on market with 3.8 months of supply, but Newport had 53 days and 6.5 months of supply. County listing coverage reaches only 25 counties.

Can the county hazard labels be used to price insurance?

No. They identify each county's one leading hazard among the supplied categories. They are not parcel assessments or insurance quotes.