Marion County, OR

Marion County presents a narrow cash-flow and price-support tension: Zillow's 2026-06 median home value is $447,273, versus $1,597 median asking rent and a supplied 4.28% gross yield before costs. Price rose 0.16% year over year while rent fell 0.22%, so income-focused underwriters should be cautious and investigate property-level rent, expenses, and condition. The record supports screening, not a final acquisition conclusion.

Carrying costs tighten the spread. Effective property tax is 0.84%; insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing, and management are not supplied. HUD's two-bedroom FMR is $1,560, while market asking rent is 2.40% above it by calculation; FMR is a payment standard, not market rent. Realtor.com's 2026-06 MLS evidence shows median listing price down 5.55% and active listings up 11.45%. These are asking-price and visible-supply signals, not closed-sale evidence. FHFA's 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 2.59%; its supplied five-year change is a separate interval, not a home value, and neither measure should be averaged with Zillow's 2026-06 observation.

Demand is mixed. QCEW's 2025 annual covered employment and average weekly wage both grew, with education and health services the largest disclosed private supersector; QCEW measures workplace covered employment, not resident labor. Tax-return flows show net migration of -155 while inbound average AGI exceeded outbound by $2,082. Investor purchases were 5.15% of recorded purchases, showing minority participation. Together, these facts support checking tenant depth and buyer competition rather than assuming either is strong from one county series.

Earthquake is the dominant hazard. The modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.17% of building value per year, but seismic retrofit needs, insurance premiums, deductibles, and site-specific hazard are not published; hazard-adjusted net yield therefore cannot be concluded. Missing closed-sale comps, executed-lease vacancy and concessions, operating costs, financing terms, and resident employment data also prevent translating listing weakness into a value change or QCEW into resident income. Next checks are comparable sales, signed rents and turnover, full operating costs, insurance and seismic reports, and submarket variation within the county.