Kauai County’s decision tension is a reported income return against conflicting price evidence and flood-sensitive carrying costs. It warrants investigation by operators able to verify parcel expenses and lease depth; buyers relying on price momentum should be cautious. In Zillow’s county observation labeled 2026-06, the $1,024,959 median home value and $5,102 monthly median asking rent correspond to a reported 5.97% pre-cost gross yield. Zillow’s value measure rose 1.25%, while the 2025 FHFA repeat-transaction HPI fell 0.79%. These different methods and vintages cannot be averaged.
Market rent is measured here, but HUD’s $2,332 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate; it cannot substitute for market rent or produce a yield. The county’s 0.21% effective property-tax rate and $1,866 median annual tax are carrying-cost reference points, not a subject property bill. Because the yield is before costs, unpublished insurance, HOA, maintenance, utilities, vacancy, and financing terms prevent a net-cash-flow conclusion.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS evidence shows 406 active listings, 96 median days on market, and reductions on 15.61% of listings. These measure visible supply, marketing time, and seller concessions—not closed sales or buyer demand. Net tax-return migration was negative 130 households, although incoming movers’ average AGI exceeded outgoing movers’ by $14,984. The purchase-mortgage measure records 132 non-occupant purchases among 392 total purchases (33.67%), so investor participation may matter for competition but does not identify property types. QCEW covers jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment; Trade, transportation, and utilities is its largest disclosed private supersector.
Modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.32%, and inland flood is the dominant hazard. This county-level modeled ratio is not a loss estimate for a particular structure. Flood-zone, elevation, drainage, prior-loss, and insurance-quote evidence is not published, nor are unit-level rent comps, condition, or closed-sale comparables. Those gaps prevent a hazard-adjusted valuation, insurance-informed net underwriting, and a conclusion about whether asking-market conditions translate to a subject asset.