Lackawanna County presents a yield-versus-resilience tension: Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $248,475 and higher year over year, while the 2025 FHFA repeat-transaction HPI rose 4.91%. Different vintages and methods mean the HPI supports Zillow’s positive direction but cannot be averaged with Zillow or treated as a value. Measured median asking rent of $1,332 per month supports a stated 6.43% gross yield before costs. Operators able to validate unit rent and flood exposure should investigate; buyers dependent on appreciation or slim reserves should be cautious.
Market rent is published asking rent, not policy data. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,252 per month, a payment standard rather than an asking-rent estimate, and cannot substitute in a pro forma. The gross yield excludes taxes, insurance, repairs, vacancy and financing. The effective property-tax rate is 1.49%, a material carrying-cost check against Zillow value. Unpublished insurance, operating expenses, vacancy and debt terms prevent a net-yield or debt-service conclusion.
Demand evidence is mixed. QCEW’s 2025 annual workplace-covered employment increased; covered-worker wages also rose, and Education and health services was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. In Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing market, active supply increased, median marketing time was 45 days, and 17.3% of listings had price reductions. These are asking-market indicators, not closed sales or standalone proof of buyer demand. Non-occupant purchase mortgages were 423 of 2,052 purchases, or 20.61%, indicating competition but not bid pricing or property type. Net outmigration and higher outmover income than inmover income add a demand-quality caution.
Risk screening begins with inland flood: modeled annual climate loss is 0.13% of building value, so site elevation, flood zone, loss history, insurance availability and deductible can alter apparent yield. Missing closed-sale prices, property-level rents and expenses, flood quotes, loan terms, vacancy history and submarket inventory prevent conclusions on cash flow, value support and exit liquidity. Verify the target asset’s lease, tax bill, condition and hazard history before relying on county evidence.