Lincoln County’s tension is a supplied 5.8% gross yield against price measures that differ by source and vintage. It merits unit-level rent and flood-cost verification; broad medians warrant caution. In Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation, median home value was $507,148, up 0.18% year over year, and median asking rent was $2,450 monthly. This is measured market rent, not HUD assistance.
The yield is before costs. The effective property-tax rate is 0.45%, a carrying cost against the price/rent relationship. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for market rent or yield. Separately, FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 7.43% year over year and 66.78% over five years. It is an appreciation index, not a dollar home value, and cannot be averaged with Zillow’s differently dated result.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS snapshot shows 229 active listings unchanged year over year, 49 median days on market, and 15.51% price-reduced. These are asking-price, visible-supply, marketing-time, and seller-concession evidence—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. QCEW’s 2025 county record reports covered-job and covered-worker wage increases at workplaces; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net tax-return migration was 39; inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $46,568. Investor share was 7.02% of purchase mortgages. This records positive net migration and limited investor participation, not a demand forecast.
Modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.14%, consistent with the dominant inland-flood hazard, but county modeling is not parcel loss experience. Flood zone, elevation, insurance availability, and premiums are not published; without them, flood carrying cost cannot be underwritten. Closed-sale comps, property-specific rents, vacancy, repairs, and financing terms are also not published, preventing a net-yield, acquisition-basis, or absorption conclusion.