Madison County presents a price-versus-income-verification tension: recorded home-value momentum is positive, yet no published market rent can test whether acquisition values support cash flow. Zillow’s $277,839 median home value at 2026-06 was 3.97% higher year over year. Separately, FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI was up 64.20% cumulatively over five years. The two measures support positive direction but have different methods and supplied periods; FHFA is not a home value. Buyers requiring current income evidence should investigate rather than treat appreciation as proof of yield.
No county market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The $1,347 HUD two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent, and must not be substituted. The documented effective property-tax rate is 0.41%, with a $736 median annual property tax; this is a carrying-cost input, but price, tax burden, and rent cannot be reconciled without rent and property-specific operating costs. Realtor.com MLS median listing price, active listings, days on market, and price-reduction data are not supplied. Visible supply, seller concessions, and listing-market pace therefore remain untested, and none would be closed-sale evidence.
Demand evidence is mixed. Net migration was 143 tax-return households, but average income among in-movers was $3,833 below out-movers; the flow alone does not establish purchasing power. Non-occupant purchase mortgages represented 12.57% of 175 purchases, a measurable investor presence but not evidence of bidding intensity, ownership concentration, or rental absorption. In QCEW’s 2025 annual county workplace data, covered employment declined 1.77%; Manufacturing was the largest disclosed private supersector. This is not resident employment or unemployment, and the industry label does not characterize the whole economy.
Risk limits are material. The modeled climate loss ratio is 0.18% of building value per year and is consistent with inland-flood exposure, but it does not establish a parcel’s flood zone, elevation, deductible, premium, or insurability. Missing market rent and absent Realtor.com listing, inventory, marketing-time, and reduction fields prevent yield, visible-supply, and seller-concession conclusions. Next checks are market-rent and lease comparables, parcel-level flood and insurance review, property condition, and MLS listing, pending, and reduction activity. County-level inputs cannot settle submarket or asset underwriting.