Marshall County is a low-price but incomplete-income case: buyers prepared to verify leases and flood costs should investigate, while yield-dependent buyers should be cautious. Zillow’s county median home value was $140,492 in 2026-06, up 5.57% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 9.40% annually. That confirms positive appreciation direction, but it is neither a home value nor the same vintage or method as Zillow, so the measures cannot be combined.
Measured market rent is not published, preventing a gross-yield calculation. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard rather than an estimate of asking rent and cannot substitute for it. The 0.45% effective property-tax rate provides one carrying-cost input; insurance, maintenance, and flood-mitigation costs are not published. Income coverage and all-in operating margin therefore remain untestable.
Realtor.com’s MLS listing market shows softer seller positioning. Median listing price declined 8.76% year over year, while active listings rose 9.52%. Median marketing time was 51 days, and 13.46% of listings carried a price reduction. These are asking-price, visible-supply, marketing-time, and concession indicators—not closed-sale prices or independent proof of buyer demand. Investor purchases were 29 of 213, or 13.62%, signaling participation but not their pricing or hold strategy.
Risk limits lean against extrapolation. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.24% of building value; that is a modeled value-loss metric, not a property-specific loss estimate. Net migration was negative, and movers entering had average AGI $9,241 below movers leaving, weakening the case for assuming stronger household purchasing power. QCEW annual covered employment at county workplaces declined 1.60%; it is not resident employment or a forecast. Next checks are lease comps, flood-zone and insurance quotes, property condition, and closed-sale comparables.