McCook County’s tension is that appreciation evidence remains positive while the investable cash-flow case is unmeasured and listing friction is visible. Zillow’s June 2026 median home value is $300,726, up 4.94% year over year. Separately, FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 9.04% annually and 44.88% on its supplied multiyear measure. Those distinct methods and vintages support an upward direction, not a combined appreciation rate. Buyers reliant on rental income should investigate; price-focused buyers should be cautious about the weaker evidence below.
Measured market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The $1,156 two-bedroom HUD Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent and cannot substitute in the calculation. Carrying costs require property-specific verification: the reported effective property-tax rate is 1.06%, but it does not identify the tax bill on a particular acquisition. The price, tax burden, lease terms, insurance, and maintenance expenses therefore cannot yet be reconciled into a county underwriting margin.
MLS listing-market evidence suggests sellers may need more patience, not that buyers are absent. Realtor.com recorded 26 active listings, a 55-day median marketing time, and price reductions on 18.10% of listings; these are asking-market supply and concession signals, not closed-sale outcomes. Net migration was negative 44 tax-return households, while average income of inbound movers trailed outbound movers by $2,686. QCEW covered workplace employment rose 4.93%, but it is neither resident employment nor a forecast. Non-occupant purchase mortgages represented 13.33% of purchases, but this cannot establish competition for a given asset.
Flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled climate loss equals 0.15% of building value per year; that county-level model is not a parcel flood determination or an insurance quote. The thesis could fail if subject rents do not cover carrying costs, if MLS concessions translate into lower closed prices, or if flood exposure and insurance exceed assumptions. Next checks are market asking-rent and vacancy evidence, closed-sale and contract data, parcel tax and flood records, insurance quotes, and lease and condition details. Missing rent prevents a yield conclusion; missing transaction and property evidence prevents a defensible entry-price and downside conclusion.