McHenry County is a verification-first underwriting case for buyers who need demonstrated cash flow; those relying on appreciation or quick resale should be cautious until rents, listing liquidity and parcel exposure are checked. Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $156,908, up 3.41% from its prior-year observation. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI—an index, not a home value—rose 0.29% in annual 2025 and 36.83% over five years. Both measures point upward, but their methods and labeled vintages differ, so they cannot be blended into one appreciation rate.
The housing economics remain incomplete. County market rent is not published, which prevents a gross-yield calculation. HUD’s $1,000 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not measured asking rent, and cannot substitute for market rent. The effective property-tax rate is 0.66%, and median annual property tax is $994; these are carrying-cost inputs requiring parcel-level confirmation rather than an implied tax bill for Zillow’s county-level median value.
QCEW recorded 1,311 annual average covered jobs at workplaces in the county, up 1.00%, while covered workers’ average weekly wage was $1,064, down 0.09%. Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, not a description of the county’s whole economy. Tax-return flows showed a net loss of 49 households, while calculated incoming average AGI exceeded outgoing average AGI by $26,148. That combination does not establish renter demand. Investor participation was 3.45% of 29 purchases, leaving a small observed nonoccupant-buyer count that should not stand in for all buyer competition.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.07%; it is a county-level model, not a parcel flood determination or insurance quote. For the labeled 2026-06 Realtor.com inventory period, median listing price, active-listing, days-on-market, and price-reduced-share figures are not published. Their absence prevents a read on visible supply, asking-price behavior, marketing time, and seller concessions; MLS listings would not themselves prove closed-sale pricing or buyer demand. Next checks are current market-rent comps and executed leases, parcel taxes, flood zones and insurance terms, plus MLS listing and transaction records.