McLean County presents a two-sided underwriting case: rent is firmer than home-price appreciation, while household flows and covered employment are softer. Zillow’s county data show a median home value of $261,828 and median asking rent of $1,374; rent rose 4.27% year over year against 1.91% for price. The thesis is income-led, not appreciation-led: an underwriter should investigate durable tenant demand and be cautious where returns require resident growth or rapid resale gains.
At the supplied price and market-rent figures, gross yield is 6.3% before costs. Market rent is not HUD support: the two-bedroom FMR is $1,302, with market rent 5.5% above that payment standard. The 2.17% effective property-tax rate is a direct carry item. Vacancy, repairs, insurance, management, utilities, financing, and lease-level rent are not published, so gross yield cannot establish net cash flow or a property-level rent conclusion.
Realtor.com’s MLS evidence shows 173 active listings and median days on market of 34, alongside price reductions; these are asking-market measures, not closed prices or proof of buyer demand. Negative net migration and weaker average AGI among inbound than outbound movers point to a demand constraint. The 11.63% investor share of purchases signals non-occupant competition, but it is a minority share and does not establish total buyer depth. Underwriters should require property-level leasing evidence and realistic concessions rather than treating visible listing activity as absorption.
The QCEW and FHFA observations are labeled 2025. QCEW’s annual workplace measure shows covered employment down 2.23%, while the covered-worker average weekly wage increased; Financial activities is the largest disclosed private supersector. That is not resident employment, unemployment, a forecast, or a metro CES/LAUS series. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 5.02%, but its vintage and method differ from Zillow’s county observation; it can confirm or challenge direction, not be averaged with Zillow’s rate. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.13%, not parcel underwriting. Next checks are actual leases and collections, full expenses and debt terms, recent closed sales, employer concentration, flood zone and elevation, insurance terms, claims, and drainage.