Moffat’s tension is modest current Zillow value movement against stronger FHFA appreciation without a published market-rent anchor. Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation puts median home value at $307,749, up 2.12% year over year. FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 4.30%. These are directionally consistent, but the HPI is not a home value and its method and period must not be blended with Zillow’s. This calls for rent and carry-cost verification and caution where appreciation is the sole support.
Economics remain unpriced: market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The $1,164 HUD two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not local asking rent, and cannot enter a yield calculation. The effective property-tax rate is 0.40%; the $1,146 median annual tax is a county median, not a bill to apply mechanically to the Zillow value. Assessed value, classification, and exemptions need parcel-level review before drawing a carrying-cost conclusion.
Workplace demand is mixed. QCEW reports 4,556 annual average covered jobs at county workplaces, down 3.17% year over year. Trade, transportation, and utilities represented 33.94% of total private covered employment, requiring attention to sector exposure; QCEW is neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Tax-return migration was net positive by 21 households, but arriving movers’ average income was $2,032 lower than departing movers’. Investors accounted for 3.24% of purchase mortgages to non-occupants, a limited observed competitive channel that does not capture unsupplied cash-buying evidence.
Inland flood is the named dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.15% of building value; this is a modeled ratio, not a realized dollar loss or countywide property outcome. At Realtor.com’s 2026-06 period, MLS listing-market measures—asking price, active visible supply, marketing time, reductions, and pending ratio—are not published, so buyer demand and seller concessions cannot be determined. Next checks are parcel flood exposure and insurance, actual market rents and lease terms, assessed-tax history, and current MLS competition.