Ottawa County’s tension is near-flat Zillow value movement versus stronger FHFA index growth, while MLS sellers are raising asks but some are conceding. Rent-dependent buyers should investigate unit economics; short-hold appreciation buyers should be cautious. Zillow’s June 2026 median home value was $277,248, up 0.09% year over year; FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 8.34%. FHFA is an appreciation index, not a home value, so differently dated and constructed measures cannot be blended into one growth rate.
Measured county market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,106 per month is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot substitute in the yield calculation. The effective property-tax rate is 1.08%, with median annual tax of $2,378. These are carrying-cost inputs, but without market rent, insurance, debt terms, and property-specific assessments, they do not establish cash flow or an affordable purchase basis.
Realtor.com’s June 2026 MLS evidence shows median listing prices 20.48% higher year over year and 222 active listings. Median marketing time was 54 days, 16.60% of listings carried price reductions, and the pending-to-active ratio was 38.60%. These are asking-price, visible-supply, marketing-time, concession, and pipeline indicators—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand alone. QCEW’s 2025 annual data cover jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment or unemployment; employment and average covered-worker wages increased, while leisure and hospitality was the largest disclosed private supersector. This establishes neither tenant demand nor a labor forecast.
Tax-return migration was modestly negative, although average AGI was higher among in-movers than out-movers; that mix does not identify renter demand or household tenure. Investors accounted for 47 of 533 purchases, or 8.82%, showing participation but not pricing power or property types. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.14% of building value; it is modeled exposure, not a site-specific loss estimate. Next checks are lease and rent comps, flood-zone and insurance records, tax bills, sale comps, and unit condition. Without them, yield, hazard cost, resale support, and buyer depth remain untested.