Ouray County presents a price-heavy, incomplete-rent-evidence decision. Zillow's 2026-06 median home value is $812,236, up 4.35% year over year. FHFA's 2025 repeat-transaction index fell 1.10% annually but shows a cumulative, nonannualized rise of 68.83%. These are different vintages and methods, not a blended growth rate: one supports recent price strength while the other challenges it. The thesis is selective: investors should investigate property-level rent and resale evidence before accepting the price, and anyone underwriting from appreciation alone should be cautious.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD's two-bedroom FMR is $1,526 per month, but it is a payment standard, not market asking rent and not a substitute for a lease survey. The effective property-tax rate is 0.28%, with median annual tax of $2,050; these are carrying-cost indicators, not a complete return measure. Missing rent prevents rent coverage, cap rate, and gross-yield underwriting; missing insurance, vacancy, repairs, utilities, management, and financing prevents a net cash-flow conclusion.
Demand evidence is mixed and should not be read as closed-sale demand. Realtor.com MLS evidence shows 125 active listings and a 19.87% price-reduced share: these measure visible supply and seller concessions, not buyer demand by themselves. QCEW's 2025 covered employment was 2,194, down 0.90%, while average weekly wage rose 4.25%. Leisure and hospitality is the largest disclosed private supersector, so this is workplace-based evidence, not resident employment or the whole economy. Net migration was 33, and inbound mover average AGI exceeded outbound AGI by $61,030, supportive but not proof of durable rental demand. Investor purchases were 13.64% of 66 total purchase mortgages, showing participation without establishing property-level competition.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. The modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.30% of building value expected lost annually; it is not an insurance quote or property-specific loss estimate. Before underwriting, obtain the parcel flood zone and elevation, insurance terms, a market-rent survey, and closed-sale comps, then test operating statements and financing. The absent parcel and building details prevent translating county hazard evidence into a property-specific cost. No metro context is supplied, so this record cannot support a metro comparison.