Polk County's underwriting tension is a 6.40% pre-cost gross yield on a $229,428 median home value against conflicting price-direction evidence, making it a cash-flow screen rather than a clear appreciation case. The $1,223 median asking rent is measured market rent. Zillow's county reading for 2026-06 reports price up 1.98%; FHFA's repeat-transaction HPI for 2025 fell 0.50% annually. These are distinct vintages and methods, so neither supports combining them into one growth rate. Investigate properties with durable rent support; be cautious where the thesis needs resale growth.
At the supplied price and market rent, this gross yield is before property taxes, insurance, repairs, vacancy, financing and flood mitigation. HUD's two-bedroom FMR is a $1,018 monthly payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate; market asking rent is 20.10% above it. Effective property tax is 0.75%, and median annual property tax is $1,413, both relevant recurring costs but not parcel-level bills. No operating-expense, insurance, flood-zone, property-condition, or lease-quality data are published, preventing net-yield and property-specific cash-flow underwriting.
MLS listing evidence at 2026-06 is less tight than price appreciation alone suggests: active listings rose 22.35%, and 29.97% of listings had reductions. These are asking-market supply and concession signals—not closed sales or buyer-demand proof. Annual QCEW county labor data for 2025 show covered workplace employment declined; Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the county's whole economy. Migration records show inbound movers' average AGI was $6,712 higher than outbound movers'; this is a composition clue, not tenant-demand proof. Investors accounted for 6.70% of purchase mortgages (30 of 448), limiting evidence of investor buyer competition.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.14% of building value; it is a modeled value-loss ratio, not a claim about a particular structure's flood exposure or an insurance quote. Missing closed-sale prices, rent distribution and vacancy, insurance and flood quotes, parcel tax assessments, financing terms, and flood-zone/elevation data prevent validation of exit value, net operating income, affordability, and asset-level hazard cost. Confirm those items before treating county screens as property underwriting.