Rock County presents a split underwriting case: measurable rent and price growth meet a return cushion that is not obviously wide after carrying costs. A buyer seeking current income should investigate selectively; one relying on appreciation, HUD support, or county averages should be cautious. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $299,801, up 6.81%, while its median asking rent was $1,208 per month, up 5.95%. That supports a positive gross screen, not property-level cash flow.
That screen is 4.84% gross yield before costs. The supplied rent is median asking rent, not collected rent, so vacancy and operating assumptions remain decisive. HUD’s $1,246 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard; market rent is 97% of it, so FMR cannot substitute for asking rent or raise yield. Property tax remains material: effective rate 1.60% and median annual tax $3,703. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 5.10% annually and 61.39% cumulatively over five years; the latter is not annualized. This index is not a home value and should not be averaged with Zillow’s different vintage and method.
MLS evidence adds caution, not a sales verdict. In Realtor.com’s 2026-06 record, median listing-price growth was 3.39%; active listings and marketing time increased, and some sellers reduced prices. These are asking-price, visible-supply, marketing-time, and concession signals—not closed-sale prices or proof of demand. QCEW’s 2025 annual record shows county workplace covered employment nearly flat while average weekly wages rose. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net migration was positive, but inbound movers had lower average AGI than outbound movers. Investor mortgages were a minority of total purchases, so investor competition is not dominant.
The main limit is inland flood exposure. The modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.13% of building value per year, not a property-specific flood map, insurance quote, deductible, exclusion, or dollar loss. Before relying on gross yield, obtain parcel-level flood and drainage information, insurance terms, condition, vacancy, management, financing, and achieved-rent evidence. Closed-sale comparables are needed to test Zillow and Realtor direction; resident employment, unemployment, and tenant income are not supplied, preventing firm conclusions on demand durability or net yield.