Rock Island County pits a measured rent-supported gross yield against softer visible resale terms, workplace employment contraction, and high recurring taxes. It warrants asset-level investigation by underwriters able to test flood exposure, taxes and achievable rent; buyers relying on broad appreciation or easy resale should be cautious. Zillow’s June 2026 county observation put median home value at $160,485 and median asking rent at $972 monthly, with a supplied 7.27% gross yield before costs. This market rent is distinct from HUD’s two-bedroom Fair Market Rent: FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent.
Price evidence is mixed and cannot be merged. FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 3.19% year over year; it is an index, not a dollar value. Separately, Realtor.com’s June 2026 MLS market showed median asking price down 5.30%, active listings up 25.36%, and 13.52% of listings reduced. These are asking-price, visible-supply and concession measures, not closed prices or proof of buyer demand. The 2.28% effective property-tax rate and $3,425 median annual tax make carrying costs material; net yield cannot be calculated because insurance, repairs, financing and vacancy are not published.
Demand evidence calls for selectivity, not a conclusion about resident labor conditions. QCEW’s annual average counted covered jobs at county workplaces, down 1.46% year over year; its largest disclosed private supersector, trade, transportation and utilities, represented 28.48% of private covered employment. This is neither unemployment nor a forecast. Tax-return migration was net negative, while moving households’ inbound average AGI was below outbound average AGI. That combination does not support an assumption of expanding local purchasing power. Non-occupant purchase mortgages were 12.18% of purchases, showing investor participation but not all-cash competition, rents, or future demand.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.14% of building value. This is a modeled expected-loss ratio, not a site-specific insurance quote or dollar loss. County evidence cannot establish parcel elevation, flood-zone status, policy cost, condition, tenant turnover, school exposure, or rent after renovation. Next checks are parcel flood and insurance records, tax bills and assessment history, comparable signed leases and concessions, and closed-sale and financing data. These gaps prevent a defensible net-cash-flow, resale-liquidity, or property-level hazard conclusion.