Rockcastle County’s decision tension is a Zillow county median home value of $148,298 at 2026-06 alongside conflicting price direction. Zillow shows a 12.95% year-over-year decline, while FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 13.16%. These are distinct vintages and methods, not a blended appreciation measure. Buyers dependent on resale liquidity or appraisal support should validate recent closed comps before treating either series as executable value evidence.
Income underwriting is constrained because median asking market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $866 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not an estimate of market rent. The 0.48% effective property-tax rate can frame carrying costs, but a parcel-specific tax bill and assessment are still needed. Realtor.com MLS listing figures are not published, leaving visible supply, marketing time, seller concessions, and listing-market liquidity unmeasured.
Demand evidence is mixed. QCEW recorded 3,838 annual average covered jobs at county workplaces in 2025, down 4.24% from the prior annual average. Education and health services accounted for 36.53% of total private covered jobs, indicating meaningful exposure to the largest disclosed private supersector rather than the whole economy. Tax-return migration was net positive by 14 households, but incoming movers’ average AGI was $227 below outgoing movers’ average. Neither workplace employment nor tax-return migration establishes renter demand.
Measured non-owner participation appears limited: 2.36% of 127 purchase mortgages went to nonoccupants, though this measure does not capture cash buyers or identify rental strategy. Inland flood is the named dominant hazard, and the modeled expected annual building-value loss ratio is 0.21%; it is not an observed loss estimate. The underwriter should obtain parcel flood-zone, elevation, insurance-premium, deductible, market-rent, vacancy, and operating-cost evidence. Without those items, the record cannot support a reliable cash-flow or insurance-adjusted yield conclusion.