Saratoga County’s decision tension is that a 4.65% gross market-rent yield sits against a $474,850 Zillow median home value and meaningful carrying-cost exposure. The published $1,840 monthly figure is median asking market rent, not a subsidy standard; this merits property-level investigation for operators able to verify expenses and rent durability, while margin-sensitive underwriting should be cautious. The yield is before taxes, insurance, repairs, vacancy and financing.
On Zillow’s county series, home value rose 5.67% year over year while asking rent rose 4.74%; that gap matters because price growth has exceeded rent growth. The effective property-tax rate is 1.40%, and median annual tax is $4,875, a carrying-cost input not deducted from gross yield. HUD’s $1,702 monthly two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not a market-rent estimate. It should not replace the published asking rent in cash-flow underwriting.
Realtor.com MLS listing-market evidence shows 556 active listings and a 7.78% price-reduced share. These measure visible supply and seller concessions, not closed-sale prices or stand-alone proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration shows net in-migration and higher average income for in-movers than out-movers; that is county-level demand context rather than property-level proof. QCEW annual workplace data show covered employment and average weekly wages rose; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Investors accounted for 150 of 2,370 purchases, a 6.33% share: present participation, but not a dominant mortgage buyer cohort.
FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 6.75%, a price-change index rather than a home value. Its direction accords with Zillow’s price movement, but their differing methods and observation labels make them non-combinable; no blended appreciation rate is valid. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with modeled expected annual climate loss of 0.09% of building value. Missing property-level flood-zone, claims, insurance-quote, replacement-cost, utilities, repair, vacancy and financing evidence prevents a net-income, debt-coverage or property-specific hazard conclusion.