Sauk County presents a trade-off: measured rent supports a calculable but modest income case, while price growth is firmer than migration and carrying costs remain material. The thesis is selective: investigate properties with verified operating costs and flood resilience; be cautious about paying a premium for appreciation or treating listings as proof of demand. Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation reports a median home value of $342,821, up 4.52% year over year. That is a county statistic, not a property valuation or a Baraboo, WI metro proxy.
Market rent is published at $1,341 per month as median asking rent, and the supplied gross yield is 4.69% before costs. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate; the supplied ratio calculates to market rent being 20.70% above it. The 1.45% effective property-tax rate and county median annual tax add to the carrying burden. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction index rose 4.95% year over year. It is not a home value and uses a different vintage and method from Zillow.
Demand evidence is mixed. Net migration was -41, yet incoming households averaged $12,738 more AGI than outgoing households. QCEW shows covered county jobs slightly lower year over year while average covered-worker wages rose; this is workplace employment, not resident employment or unemployment. Leisure and hospitality is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Realtor.com’s MLS evidence shows active listings up 14.60% year over year, and 17.76% of listings had price reductions: visible supply and concessions are not closed-sale evidence. Investor purchases represented 8.92% of 684 purchases; competition is present but not dominant on this record.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. The modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.15%, not a parcel-level flood determination or insurance quote. Obtain flood-zone and drainage records, an insurance quote, claims history, inspection, and lease-level rent evidence; test taxes and recurring expenses. Missing vacancy, repairs, management, utilities, financing, and property-level insurance prevent an all-in cash yield, debt-service coverage, or flood-adjusted property conclusion. Closed-sale comps and resident labor data are also needed to separate asking-price momentum from transaction value and workplace employment from household demand.