Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region has a decision tension: FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 7.46%, while Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS market shows asking prices up 4.78%, active listings up 5.56%, and a pending-to-active ratio of 120.18%. That pairing warrants diligence for buyers who can verify parcel economics, but cautions income-focused underwriters: the former is an index and the latter is listing-market evidence, not closed-sale pricing or standalone proof of buyer demand.
FHFA also shows 65.32% cumulative five-year index growth, not a dollar home value. The ACS 2024 5-year supplies separate survey context: its owner-occupied median value and occupied-unit gross rent do not represent current asking prices or rents and cannot be combined for yield. The effective property-tax rate is 1.62%, with median annual tax of $5,228. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,866 per month, a payment standard rather than market rent. Because market rent is not published, gross yield cannot be computed.
Annual QCEW workplace data in the supplied 2025 period show covered employment and average weekly wages grew year over year; Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Tax-return movers produced net in-migration, but incoming households had lower average AGI than outgoing households, so the flow does not establish stronger local purchasing power. Non-occupant purchase mortgages were a minority of purchases. Taken with the MLS evidence, that leaves buyer competition and tenant depth unresolved rather than confirmed.
Risk limits are material: the modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.15% and inland flood is the dominant hazard, but this county model cannot substitute for a parcel flood zone, elevation, insurance quote, deductible, or condition review. Missing current market rent, closed-sale comparables, lease terms, vacancy by submarket, and property-specific taxes and flood costs prevent a defensible cash-flow, exit-price, or insurance-cost conclusion. The next check is to connect those parcel facts to carrying costs without treating county averages as forecasts.