Story County’s tension is a stated 4.59% gross yield before costs against carrying-cost and demand evidence that requires property-level validation. The Zillow county reading pairs a $298,304 median home value with $1,142 monthly median asking rent. The county warrants investigation by buyers able to verify expenses and tenant depth, but buyers needing a wide net-income cushion should be cautious.
The HUD two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not a market-rent estimate; it cannot replace the published market-rent measure in gross-yield calculations. The 1.40% effective property-tax rate is a direct carrying-cost pressure alongside maintenance, insurance, and financing, which are not published here. Zillow’s value rose 2.78% at its 2026-06 observation, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 2.93% in its 2025 annual series. Both indicate positive movement, but their methods and vintages differ and cannot be combined.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 data are MLS listing-market, not closed-sale, evidence: 14.52% of listings had price reductions, a seller-concession measure rather than proof of buyer demand. Net migration was negative 427 tax-return households, and arriving households’ average AGI was $7,795 below that of departing households, narrowing the demand case. The record reports 87 investor purchases among 931 total purchases, a 9.34% investor share; this identifies non-occupant competition but not cash-buyer activity. Annual QCEW covered employment at county workplaces declined; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled climate loss equals 0.12% of building value per year; it does not establish a specific building’s insurance cost or physical exposure. The supplied record does not publish flood-zone, elevation, insurance, operating-expense, vacancy, lease-turnover, financing, bedroom-mix, or closed-sale-comparable data. Those gaps prevent net-yield, hazard-cost, tenant-depth, and exit-value underwriting. Next checks are parcel flood and insurance review, current rent rolls and comparable leases, operating statements, and closed-sale comps.